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Uncertainties of LCC Predictions

  • Gerald R. McNichols
Part of the NATO ASI Series book series (volume 3)

Abstract

Many Life Cycle Cost (LCC) Models treat costs as “point estimates“ or “most likely” predictions of what actual costs will be many years in the future. Actual costs, however, are not exact, but are subject to considerable uncertainty. This paper examines an analytical method for aggregating LCC component and subsystem costs so as to produce a total cost prediction and the uncertainty around it. The technique has been applied to aircraft and space based radar costs.

Four problems of LCC prediction will be given. Recent work by McNichols (1979) solves the first two problems. This paper describes a solution for the third problem.

Keywords

Life Cycle Cost Uncertainty Distribution Second Order Approximation Cost Element Compound Distribution 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1983

Authors and Affiliations

  • Gerald R. McNichols
    • 1
  1. 1.Management Consulting & Research, Inc.Falls ChurchUSA

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