The Impact of Therapeutic Improvements on the Value of Mass Screening for Early Detection of Disease: The Case of Cervical Cancer

  • J. D. F. Habbema
  • G. J. van Oortmarssen
Conference paper
Part of the Medizinische Informatik und Statistik book series (MEDINFO, volume 33)

Summary

The problem under study is the impact of survival-improvement on the value of mass-screening for early detection of disease. Two kinds of survival-improvement are defined: decrease in case-fatality, and increase in survival-time for fatal cases. The problem is investigated for cervical cancer screening, using the computer-programme MISCAN for simulation of mass screening and assuming a reduction of 30% in the case-fatality of local cervical cancer, and a doubling of survival for fatal cancer cases. Also, an example is given of how the results from a randomized clinical trial of a new treatment can be used for assessing the impact of this therapy on the effectiveness of mass screening. The general conclusion of the paper is that the effectiveness of cervical cancer screening will drop with improving therapy, especially for screening at older ages.

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References

  1. Habbema, J.D.F., Oortmarssen, G.J. van, and Lubbe, J.Th.N. (1980). A simulation model for evaluation of mass screening, 2nd progress report on research project Decision making on mass screening. Technical Report, Dept. of Public. Health and Social Medicine, Erasmus University Rotterdam.Google Scholar
  2. Kottmeier, H.L. (ed.) (1979). Annual Report on the Results of Treatment in Gynaecological Cancer, Vol. 17, FIGO, Stockholm.Google Scholar
  3. Oortmarssen, G.J. van, Habbema, J.D.F., Lubbe, J.Th.N., Jong, G.A. de and Maas, P.J. van der (1981). Predicting the Effects of Mass Screening for Disease–a Simulation Approach. European Journal of Operations Research 6, 399–409.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1981

Authors and Affiliations

  • J. D. F. Habbema
    • 1
    • 2
  • G. J. van Oortmarssen
    • 1
    • 2
  1. 1.Department of Public Health and Social MedicineErasmus UniversityRotterdamThe Netherlands
  2. 2.University Rotterdam, Medical FacultyRotterdamThe Netherlands

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