On the Sampling Distribution of Exceedance Probabilities
Using a partial duration series model as an example the impact of parameter uncertainty on the true exceedance probability is examined. Analytical expressions for the probability density function and the mean value of the true exceedance probability are derived. The true exceedance probability is positively biased implying that the traditional design method on the average tends to be too optimistic.
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- Rasmussen, P.F. (1991) The partial duration series approach to flood frequency analysis. Series paper no. 55. Institute of Hydrodynamics and Hydraulic Engineering, Technical University of DenmarkGoogle Scholar