Abstract
This multivariate analysis study was designed to identify parameters to predict which ocular hypertensive (OHT) patients will remain OHT during follow-up and which will develop glaucoma. Material included 96 OHT patients aged 25–75 (mean 57) years. All had a minimum of 5 years (mean 9 + /-2.5, range 5–15) follow-up during which their optic discs were photographed at least three times. The patients were divided into two groups randomly. The best identifying combination of variables was determined in group 1. The model was then tested in group 2.
Variables available at the beginning of the follow-up yielded good specificity but poor sensitivity. The factors best separating stable OHT patients from the ones who developed glaucoma in group 1 were:
-
Initial rim area
-
Change of rim area/year of follow-up
-
Standard deviation of the mean defect of the initial visual field
In group 2 this model correctly classified 81% of the patients with 72% sensitivity and 87% specificity. Intraocular pressure (IOP) variables, retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) score and peripapillary atrophy (PPA) were poor predictors.
Information obtainable at the patients first visit does not seem to be sensitive enough. Inclusion of variables obtainable during a relatively short period of follow-up will increase predictive power of the model considerably.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Airaksinen PJ, Drance SM, Schulzer M (1985) Neuroretinal rim area in early glaucoma. Am J Ophthalmol 99:1–4
Airaksinen PJ, Juvala PA, Tuulonen A, Alanko HI, Valkonen R, Tuohino A (1987) Change of peripapillary atrophy in glaucoma. In: Krieglstein GK (ed) Glaucoma Update III. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New York, pp 97–102
Anderson DR (1983) Correlation of the peripapillary anatomy with the disc damage and field abnormalities in glaucoma. Doc Ophthalmol Proc Ser 35:1–10
Anderson DR (1989) Glaucoma: The damage caused by pressure XLVI Edward Jackson Memorial Lecture. Am J Ophthalmol 108:485–495
Bengtsson B (1981) The prevalence of glaucoma. Br J Ophthalmol 65:46–49
Drance SM, Schulzer M, Douglas GR et al (1978) Use of discriminant analysis: II. Identification of persons with glaucomatous visual field defects. Arch Ophthalmol 96:1571–1573
Drance SM, Lakowski R, Schulzer M et al (1981a) Acquired color vision changes in glaucoma. Arch Ophthalmol 99:829–831
Drance SM, Schulzer M, Thomas B, Douglas GR (1981b) Multivariate analysis in glaucoma. Use of discriminant analysis in predicting glaucomatous visual field damage. Arch Ophthalmol 99: 1019–1022
Eddy DM, Sanders LE, Eddy JF (1983) The value of screening for glaucoma with tonometry. Surv Ophthalmol 28:194–205
Hart WM, Yablonski M, Kass MA et al (1979) Multivariate analysis of risk of glaucomatous visual field loss. Arch Ophthalmol 97: 1455–1458
Heijl A, Samander C (1985) Peripapillary atrophy and glaucomatous visual field defects. Doc Ophthalmol Proc Ser 42:403–407
Jonas JB, Naumann GOH (1988) Die parapapilläre Region in Normal- und Glaukomaugen. II. Korrelation der planimetrischen Befunde zu intrapapillären, perimetrischen und allgemeinen Daten. Klin Mbl Augenheilk 191:182–188
Juvala PA, Airaksinen PJ, Alanko HI, Tuulonen AE, Valkonen RT (1987) Change in rim area of the optic nerve in ocular hypertensives and patients with glaucoma. Chibret International Journal of Ophthalmology 5:36–40
Kitazawa Y, Horie T, Aoki S, Suzuki M, Nishioka K (1977) Untreated ocular hypertension. A long-term prospective study. Arch Ophthalmol 95: 1180–1184
Nagin P, Schwartz B, Nanba K (1985) The reproducibility of computerized boundary analysis for measuring optic disc pallor in the normal optic disc. Ophthalmology 92:243–251
Tuulonen A, Airaksinen PJ (1991) First glaucomatous optic disc and retinal nerve fiber layer abnormalities and the mode of their progression. (Submitted for publication)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1991 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Airaksinen, P.J., Tuulonen, A., Alanko, H.I. (1991). Prediction of Development of Glaucoma in Ocular Hypertensive Patients. In: Krieglstein, G.K. (eds) Glaucoma Update IV. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-76084-6_27
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-76084-6_27
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-76086-0
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-76084-6
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive