Prediction of Development of Glaucoma in Ocular Hypertensive Patients

  • P. J. Airaksinen
  • A. Tuulonen
  • H. I. Alanko
Conference paper


This multivariate analysis study was designed to identify parameters to predict which ocular hypertensive (OHT) patients will remain OHT during follow-up and which will develop glaucoma. Material included 96 OHT patients aged 25–75 (mean 57) years. All had a minimum of 5 years (mean 9 + /-2.5, range 5–15) follow-up during which their optic discs were photographed at least three times. The patients were divided into two groups randomly. The best identifying combination of variables was determined in group 1. The model was then tested in group 2.

Variables available at the beginning of the follow-up yielded good specificity but poor sensitivity. The factors best separating stable OHT patients from the ones who developed glaucoma in group 1 were:
  • Initial rim area

  • Change of rim area/year of follow-up

  • Standard deviation of the mean defect of the initial visual field

In group 2 this model correctly classified 81% of the patients with 72% sensitivity and 87% specificity. Intraocular pressure (IOP) variables, retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) score and peripapillary atrophy (PPA) were poor predictors.

Information obtainable at the patients first visit does not seem to be sensitive enough. Inclusion of variables obtainable during a relatively short period of follow-up will increase predictive power of the model considerably.


Optic Disc Retinal Nerve Fiber Layer Ocular Hypertensive Normal Visual Field Optic Disc Pallor 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1991

Authors and Affiliations

  • P. J. Airaksinen
    • 1
  • A. Tuulonen
    • 1
  • H. I. Alanko
    • 1
  1. 1.OuluFinland

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