Climatic Effects of a Nuclear Conflict

Abstract

The discovery of the present anthropogenic change in climate appeared to be one of the most important results of the scientific revolution that has taken place in the field of climatology in recent decades. Figure 11 (curve 1) gives the first published forecast of the mean air temperature changes at the end of the 20th and in the 21st century produced by carbon dioxide accumulated in the atmosphere as a result of carbon fuel combustion (Budyko 1972). In following years, forecasts of this kind were made by a number of scientists and at different scientific conferences, the results of all of them being much the same. To illustrate this, Figure 11 presents curves 2 and 3, which are based on the forecast proposed by the Soviet-American meeting of experts on the climatic effects of increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (Climatic Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide 1982). Comparison of curve 1 with curves 2 and 3 has shown that the conclusion as to a future large-scale warming, which might occur within the next decades, has in essence not changed, even though great progress has been achieved in the study of anthropogenic climatic change.