Prediction of North Sea Storm Surges Using Numerical Models: Recent Developments in U. K.

  • R. A. Flather
  • R. Proctor

Abstract

A storm surge prediction scheme developed at IOS Bidston and making use of numerical models of the atmosphere and of the sea has been in routine operation at the U.K. Meteorological Office, Bracknell, for three surge seasons. The system employs a basic sea model (Fig. 1) covering the continental shelf seas surrounding the British Isles driven by wind stress and atmospheric pressure distributions derived from the Meteorological Office’s fine mesh 10-level weather prediction model (Burridge and Gadd 1977). Operating twice a day during the months of September to April it gives predictions of developing surges up to about 30 h ahead.

Keywords

Depression Propa Geophysics Cose Peregrine 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Burridge DM, Gadd AJ (1977) The Meteorological Office operational 10-level numerical weather prediction model (December 1975). Meteorol Off Sci Pap HMSO 34.Google Scholar
  2. Cartwright DE (1976) Shelf boundary tidal measurements between Ireland and Norway. Mem Soc R Sci Liege 10: 133–140.Google Scholar
  3. Corkan RH (1950) The levels in the North Sea associated with the storm disturbance of 8th January 1949. Phil Trans R Soc London Ser A 242: 493–525.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Davies AM, Flather RA (1977) Computation of the storm surge of 1 to 6 April 1972 using numerical models of the north west European continental shelf and the North Sea. Dtsch Hydrogr Z 30: 139–162.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Davies AM, Flather RA (1978) Application of numerical models of the north west European continental shelf and the North Sea to the computation of the storm surges of November-December 1973. Dtsch Hydrogr Z Erg H A 14.Google Scholar
  6. Fischer G (1979) Results of a 36-hour storm surge prediction of the North Sea for 3 January 1976 on the basis of numerical models. Dtsch Hydrogr Z 32: 89–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Flather RA (1976a) A tidal model of the north west European continental shelf. Mem Soc R Sci Liege 10: 141–164.Google Scholar
  8. Flather RA (1976b) The development of mathematical models for tides and storm surges in shallow seas. Proceedings of the Symposium on Mathematical Models in Geophysics, Moscow, August 1971. IAHS — AISH 116.Google Scholar
  9. Flather RA (1979) Recent results from a storm surge prediction scheme for the North Sea. In: Nihoul JCJ (ed) Marine forecasting, proceedings of the 10th Liege, colloquium on ocean hydrodynamics. Elsevier Oceanogr Ser 25.Google Scholar
  10. Flather RA (1981) Practical surge prediction using numerical models. In: Peregrine DH (ed) Floods due to high winds and tides. Academic Press, London New York.Google Scholar
  11. Flather RA, Davies AM (1978) On the specification of meteorological forcing in numerical models for North Sea storm surge prediction, with application to the surge of 2–4 January 1976. Dtsch Hydrogr Z Erg H A 15.Google Scholar
  12. Hansen W (1970) On the design of oceanographical station systems. Mitt Inst Meereskunde Univ Hamburg 13.Google Scholar
  13. Townsend J (1981) Storm surges and their forecasting. In: Peregrine DH (ed) Floods due to high winds and tides. Academic Press, London New York.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1983

Authors and Affiliations

  • R. A. Flather
    • 1
  • R. Proctor
    • 1
  1. 1.Institute of Oceanographic SciencesBidston ObservatoryBirkenheadEngland

Personalised recommendations