Some Mathematical Considerations of How to Stop the Spatial Spread of a Rabies Epidemic
In the last thirty years an epidemic of silvatic rabies has spread over central Europe. Although other species are involved in this epidemic, foxes have been found to be its main carriers such that the epidemic’s development and spread is widely determined by the ecology and the control of fox populations (see , [9; I, III].). The observations made during two outbreaks (1964–65, 1969–70) of silvatic rabies in South Jutland (Denmark) permit to conclude that the reduction of the fox density in a protective belt in front of the epidemic wave can prevent the disease from penetrating into a particular area (see , [9; I, III].). In this article we derive a deterministic mathematical model which supports this conclusion and shows how, at least in principle, one can determine sufficient conditions for the depth of the protective belt and the level of reduction, such that the penetration of the epidemic is stopped.
KeywordsActivity Centre Spatial Spread Epidemic Wave Protective Belt Deterministic Mathematical Model
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