Digitized Media: Effects on Economy and Society

  • Maximilian Keisers
  • Lutz Niehüser
  • Georg Stadler
Conference paper


Imagine the economy and society of a completely digitized media world in 2015. To predict such a world is difficult or rather impossible. Peer-to-peer systems such as Kazaa give an impression of how fast millions of users are able to threaten conventional ways of distribution and inflexible royalty systems. Traditional forecast methods cannot cope with such fast changing and highly uncertain environments. Scenario planning is a much more useful tool, as it does not assume one predictable future but moreover tries to determine which plausible outcomes of the future are possible. Main driving forces and key uncertainties predominant for the future are identified. A possibility space of the future is opened up and different scenarios are developed. The world will probably not actually turn out to be one of these proposed scenarios, their explanatory power, however, is undeniable.


Digital Media Scenario Planning Media Economics 


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. [Arbo01]
    Arbor, Ann: Window on the Future — A Scenario Planning Primer, in: A South Wind Research Report, 2001, 1-20.Google Scholar
  2. [Bald99]
    Baldock, Robert: 5 Futures — What will your company look like in 2008? The future “worlds” presented here offer some clues, in: Management Review, 1999, Vol. 88 Iss. 9, 52–55.Google Scholar
  3. [BaBr99]
    Bakos, Yannis/ Brynjolfsson, Erik: Bundling Information Goods: Pricing, Profits, and Efficiency, in: Management Science, 1999, Vol. 45 Iss. 12, 1613–1630.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. [BaBr00]
    Bakos, Yannis/ Brynjolfsson, Erik: Bundling and Competition on the Internet, in: Marketing Science, 2000, Vol. 19 No. 1, 63–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. [Buhs01]
    Buhse, W.: “Systematisierung von Geschäftsmodellen für Online-Musik unter Berücksichtigung von Marktunsicherheiten.” Wirtschaftsinformatik 2001(43): 383–392.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. [Gaus02]
    Gaustad, Terje: The Problem of Excludibility for Media and Entertainment Products in New Electronic Market Channels, in: Electronic Markets, 2002, Vol. 12 Iss. 4, 248–251.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. [Heij98]
    Heijden, Kees van der: Scenarios — The art of strategic conversation, 3rd edition, Chichester, 1998.Google Scholar
  8. [Jame02]
    James, Dana: Crystal Ball — Scenario planning is peek at what’s to come, in: Marketing News, 2002, Vol. 36 Iss. 4, 6.Google Scholar
  9. [Jua+01]
    Juarez, Richard A./ Alic, Michael TV Karkhanis, Chetan S./ Johnson, Brett D.: Internet Infrastructure — Content Distribution and Storage Services Begin Net’s Evolution to Edge Computing, in: Roberts Stephens Research Report, 2001, Jan. 23, 1-57.Google Scholar
  10. [Kell98]
    Keller, Bruce P.: Condemned to repeat the past — The reemergence of misappropriation and other common law theories of protection for intellectual property, in: Harvard Journal of Law and Technology, 1998, without Vol., without page.Google Scholar
  11. [Ku01]
    Ku, Raymond S. R.: The Creative Destruction of Copyright: Napster and the New Economics of Digital Technology, Institute of Law, Science & Technology, Seton Hall, 2001, 1–49.Google Scholar
  12. [MaSa00]
    Matathia, Ira / Salzman, Marian: Next — Wie sieht die Zukunft aus? Arbeiten, Leben und Wohnen nach 2000, 3rd edition, München, 2000.Google Scholar
  13. [Merc95]
    Mercer, David: Simpler Scenarios — Scenario forecasting as a technique for long-range planning must be kept simple to be effective, in: Management Decision, 1995, Vol. 33 No. 4, 32–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. [Negr95]
    Negroponte, Nicholas: Being digital, 1st edition, New York, 1995.Google Scholar
  15. [PoMi85]
    Porter, Michael E./ Millar, Victor E.: How Information gives you Competitive Advantage, in: Harvard Business Review, 1985, Vol. 63 Iss. 4, 149–160.Google Scholar
  16. [Ring01]
    Ringland, Gill: Scenario Planning — Managing for the Future, 3rd edition, Chichester 2001.Google Scholar
  17. [Sieb02]
    Sieber, Ulrich: Gutachten zum Schutz digitaler Güter: Strafrechtlicher Teil, Deutscher Multimedia Verband (dmmv), Düsseldorf, 2002.Google Scholar
  18. [Stau02]
    Stauffer, David: Five reasons why you still need scenario planning, in: Harvard Management Update, 2002, Vol. 7 Iss. 6, 3–5.Google Scholar
  19. [Tuck99]
    Tucker, Kerry: Scenario Planning — Visualizing a broader world of possibilities can help associations anticipate and prepare for change, in: Association Management, 1999, Vol. 4, 70–75.Google Scholar
  20. [Wack85a]
    Wack, Pierre: Scenarios — Uncharted Waters Ahead, in: Harvard Business Review, 1985a, Vol.63 Iss. 5, 72–89.Google Scholar
  21. [Wack85b]
    Wack, Pierre: Scenarios — Shooting the Rapids, in: Harvard Business Review, 1985b, Vol. 63 Iss. 6, 2–14.Google Scholar
  22. [Wolfö2]
    Wolf, Michael J. (2002): Media mergers: The wave rolls on, 17&L3=104.Google Scholar
  23. [Youn97]
    Youngblood, Mark D.: Leadership at the Edge of Chaos — From Control to Creativity, in: Strategy & Leadership, 1997, September/ October, 8-14.Google Scholar
  24. [Zhu01]
    Zhu, Kevin: Internet-based Distribution of Digital Videos: The Economic Impact of Digitization on the Motion Picture Industry, in: Electronic Markets, 2001, Vol. 11 Iss. 4, 273–280.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2003

Authors and Affiliations

  • Maximilian Keisers
    • 1
  • Lutz Niehüser
    • 1
  • Georg Stadler
    • 1
  1. 1.European Business SchoolDeutschland

Personalised recommendations