BootQC: Bootstrap for Robust Analysis of Aviation Safety Data

Summary

Effective regulation of air traffic and safety requires a comprehensive aviation safety analysis plan. Most of the existing statistical analysis methods prescribed in the current aviation safety databases are parametric in nature, and thus their applicability is much restricted. A nonparametric alternative based on bootstrap methods is pursued in this paper. By assigning proper false alarm rates to the bootstrap control charts proposed in Liu and Tang (1996), a meaningful threshold system is developed for the purpose of regulating and monitoring aviation safety. The threshold system can serve as a set of standards for evaluating the performance of aviation entities, and provide guidelines for identifying unexpected performances and for assigning appropriate corrective measures. Both bootstrap control charts and threshold systems are demonstrated in an analysis of surveillance results collected by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) from several air carriers. The demonstration uses the software BootQC developed in Liu and Teng (2000).

^* The research is in part supported by the National Security Agency grant # MDA 90400-1-0037 and the Federal Aviation Administration grant #00-G007. The discussion on aviation safety in this paper reflects the views of the author,who is solely responsible for the accuracy of the analysis results presented herein, and does not necessarily reflect the official view or policy of the FAA. The author thanks K. Fazen, J. Lapointe and R. Weiss for their helpful comments. The author also thanks Dr. J. Teng for her assistance in computing.