Abstract
Two forms of climate prediction are considered: the forecast of natural climate fluctuations such as El Niño, and the determination of the effect of human activities on the future climate. Although climate as a chaotic system is sometimes believed to be basically unpredictable, both forms of prediction are feasible, but with restrictions. These are determined by the degree of instability of the climate system with respect to the initial state, the stochastic forcing by short-term weather variability, the possible existence of bifurcation points, and, in the case of anthropogenic forcing, by the natural climate variability superimposed on the anthropogenic climate signal. The different forms of prediction and their present limitations are illustrated by a number of examples.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
K. Arpe, L. Bengtsson, G.S. Golitsyn, I.I. Mokhov, V.A. Semenov, and P.V. Sporyshev, Geophys. Res. Abstr. 1, 549 (1999).
T.P. Barnett, K. Hasselmann, M. Chelliah, T. Delworth, G. Hegerl, P. Jones, E. Rasmusson, E. Roeckner, C. Ropelewski, B. Santer, and S. Tett, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 12, 2631 (1999).
E. Brückner, in Geographische Abhandlungen, edited by A. Penck (Holzel, Vienna and Olmütz, 1890), p. 325.
S. Corti, F. Molteni, and T.N. Palmer, Nature 398, 799 (1999).
U. Cubasch, K. Hasselmann, H. Hvck, E. Maier-Reimer, U. Mikolajewicz, B.D. Santer, and R. Sausen, Clim. Dyn. 2, 55 (1992).
U. Cubasch, B.D. Santer, A. Hellbach, G.C. Hegerl, H. Hock, E. Maier-Reimer, U. Mikolajewicz, A. Stössel, and R. Voss, Clim. Dyn. 10, 1 (1994).
U. Cubasch, G.C. Hegerl, R. Voss, and J. Waszkewitz, Clim. Dyn. 13, 757 (1997).
C. Frankignoul, in Analysis of Climate Variability: Applications of Statistical Techniques, edited by H. v. Storch and A. Navarra (Springer, Berlin, 1995), p. 25.
C. Frankignoul and K. Hasselmann, Tellus 29, 289 (1977).
GARP, The Physical Basis of Climate and Climate Modelling, Global Atmospheric Prediction Pregramme (World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Rep. 16, 1975).
K. Hasselmann, Tellus 28, 473 (1976).
K. Hasselmann, in Meteorology of Tropical Oceans, Vol. 251 (R. Meteorol. Soc, Reading, 1979).
K. Hasselmann, Science 276, 914 (1997).
K. Hasselmann, Clim. Dyn. 13, 601 (1997).
K. Hasselmann, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 124, 2541 (1998).
K. Hasselmann, Nature 398, 755 (1999).
G.C. Hegerl, K. Hasselmann, U. Cubasch, J.F.B. Mitchell, E. Roeckner, R. Voss, and J. Waszkewitz, Clim. Dyn. 13, 613 (1997).
G.C. Hegerl, P. Stott, M. Allen, J.F.B. Mitchell, S.F.B. Tett, and U. Cubasch, Clim. Dyn. 16, 737 (2000)
K. Herterich and K. Hasselmann, J. Phys. Oceanogr. 12, 2145 (1987).
G. Hooss, R. Voss, K. Hasselmann, E. Maier-Reimer, and F. Joos, Clim. Dyn. 18(3/4), 189 (2001).
J.T. Houghton, G.L. Jenkins, and J.J. Ephraums, Climate Change: The IPPC Scientific Assesment (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1990).
J.T. Houghton, L.G. Meira Filho, B.A. Callander, N. Harris, A. Kattenberg, and K. Maskell, Climate Change 1995, The Science of Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1996).
J. Imbrie and K.P. Imbrie, The Ice Ages, (Enslow, Short Hills, 1979).
P. Imkeller and J.-S. v. Storch, Stochastic Climate Models (Birkhäuser, Basel, 2001).
A. Indermühle, E. Monnin, B. Stauffer, T.F. Stocker, and M. Wahlen, Geophys. Res. Lett. 27, 735 (2000).
J.T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, and D. Xiaosu (eds.). Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2001).
P.D. Jones and K.R. Briffa, The Holocene 2, 165 (1992).
F. Joos, M. Bruno, R. Fink, U. Siegenthaler, T. Stocker, C. LeQuéré, and J. Sarmiento, Tellus 48B, 397 (1996).
F. Joos, G.K. Plattner, T. Stocker, O. Marchall, and A. Schmittner, Science 284, 464 (1999).
M. Latif and T.P. Barnett, Science 266, 634 (1994).
P. Lemke, Tellus 29, 385 (1977).
P. Lemke, E.W. Trinkl, and K. Hasselmann, J. Phys. Oceanogr. 12, 2100 (1980).
E.N. Lorenz, J. Atmos. Sci. 20, 130 (1963).
E.N. Lorenz, J. Atmos. Sci. 20, 448 (1963).
E.N. Lorenz, The Nature and Theory of the General Circulation of the Atmosphere (World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, 1967).
E.N Lorenz, Climate Predictability, The Physical Basis of Climate and Climate Modelling, Global Atmospheric Prediction Programme (World Meteorological Organization, Rep. 16, Geneva, 1975), p. 132.
E. Maier-Reimer and K. Hasselmann, Clim. Dyn. 2, 63 (1987).
E. Maier-Reimer, U. Mikolajewicz, and A. Winguth, Clim. Dyn. 12, 711, (1996).
M.E. Mann, R.S. Bradley, and M.K. Hughes, Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 759 (1999).
R. Meyer, F. Joos, G. Esser, M. Heimann, G. Hooss, G. Kohlmaier, W. Sauf, R. Voss, and U. Wittenberg, Global Biogeochemi. Cycles 13, 785 (1999).
U. Mikolajewicz and E. Maier-Reimer, Clim. Dyn. 4, 145 (1990).
J.M. Mitchell Jr., Stochastic models of air sea interaction and climate fluctuation, Symp. Arctic Heat Budget and Atmospheric Circulation, Lake Arrowhead, Calif., Mem. RM-5233-NSF, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica (1966).
G.R. North, K.Y. Kim, S.P. Shen, and J.W. Hardin, J. Clim. 8, 401 (1995).
G.R. North and K.Y. Kim, J. Clim. 8, 409 (1995).
R.W. Reynolds, Tellus 30, 97 (1978).
J. S. Risbey, M. Kandlikar, and D. Karoly, Clim. Res. 16, 61 (2000).
J. Sarmiento and E. Sundquist, Nature 356, 589 (1992).
J. Sarmiento, T. Hughes, R. Stauffer, and S. Manabe, Nature 393, 245 (1998).
U. Siegenthaler and H. Oeschger, Science 199, 388 (1978).
M.C. Wang and G.E. Uhlenbek, Rev. Mod. Phys. 17, 323 (1945).
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2002 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Hasselmann, K. (2002). Is Climate Predictable?. In: The Science of Disasters. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-56257-0_4
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-56257-0_4
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-62531-2
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-56257-0
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive