Abstract
The climate system of the Earth is an extremely non-linear system. This means that its development cannot (or only in a very restricted way) be predicted (Lorenz 1963). If global climate changes are to be expected, their regional impacts will primarily be of special interest. Since global climate models are presently, and in the near future, not able to provide applicable model results of meteorological parameters at the regional scale (IPCC 1995), one has to find other possibilities for data supply for the estimation of climate developments in such areas. In doing so, consistency should not be violated, either spatially/temporally or between the meteorological parameters. Three fundamental methods for scenario development are presently being discussed.
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Gerstengarbe, FW., Werner, P.C. (2003). Climate Analysis and Scenarios for Northeast Brazil. In: Gaiser, T., Krol, M., Frischkorn, H., de Araújo, J.C. (eds) Global Change and Regional Impacts. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-55659-3_11
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-55659-3_11
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