The Eye of the Beholder

Abstract

The complexity of the world around us means that unwelcome events are often sudden and unexpected. Limitations of our thinking contribute: our models of the world around us are necessarily limited in scope and detail. Also human perception is local, so we are not able to see everything that might affect us. Being unable to understand the complexity that leads to misfortune, people look for simple explanations. One of these has been to attribute misfortune to the will of the gods. Another is to look for human scapegoats, which in extremes has led to witch hunts. Confirmation bias—ignoring contradictory evidence—distorts people’s perception of events and reinforces prejudices in these situations.

One thing a person cannot do, no matter how rigorous his analysis or heroic his imagination, is to draw up a list of things that would never occur to him.¹