The Correlation Analysis and Predictions for Chlorophyll a, Aerosol Optical Depth, and Photosynthetically Active Radiation
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The relationships between chlorophyll a (CHL), aerosol optical depth (AOD), and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) were studied and predictions for the future 3 years are carried out. Our research area and timescale are in the Greenland Sea (20°W–10°E, 65°N–85°N) during the period 2003–2012. The regression analysis for CHL and AOD, CHL and PAR, and AOD and PAR were carried out. CHL and AOD had positive correlations (correlation coefficients were within 0.4–0.5) with AOD 2 months ahead of CHL. CHL and PAR were positively correlated and correlation coefficient was as high as 0.74 in 70°N–80°N. AOD was 2 months ahead of PAR and the goodness of fit were 0.63 and 0.42 for 70°N–75°N and 75°N–80°N, respectively. CHL, AOD, and PAR were all non-smooth sequences, with its first-order differential sequences were smooth and non-white noise time series. Therefore, the future 3 years prediction has been done using ARMA model.
KeywordsChlorophyll a (CHL) Aerosol optical depth (AOD) Photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) ARMA model Prediction Regression
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