Abstract
Two main perspectives on how an economy grows can be found in economic studies, their explanations centering on either secular trend or business cycle. Recently, a third perspective has developed: that of long waves, i.e. 50-year fluctuations /1/. Whereas empirical research into their existence is still far from being conclusive (see Pugno, 1985a), this being due, at least, to the shortness of the period under consideration (capitalist development), this third perspective seems fruitful insofar as it investigates changes in the trend of growth.
“Future inquiry into problems of growth should be directed [...] towards treating also the coefficients used in our equations [...] as slowly changing variables rooted in the past development of the system” (Kalecki, 1939)
I am grateful to the Siena-Firenze-Trento-Bologna interuniversity research group, directed by Prof. R. M. Goodwin, which has worked on the project “Onde lunghe e sviluppo economico” for our exciting meetings and discussions. I also wish to thank Prof. M. Salvati for his encouragement and Prof. L. Bianchi for his comments on the basis of a previous draft of this paper.
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Pugno, M. (1989). Labour’s Share, Growth and Structural Change The Case of U.S. Industrialisation. In: Di Matteo, M., Goodwin, R.M., Vercelli, A. (eds) Technological and Social Factors in Long Term Fluctuations. Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, vol 321. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-48360-8_14
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