The South in the Long Wave

Abstract

I shall argue that the “South” plays an important role, in the twentieth century, in the dynamics of the long wave, and is itself profoundly affected by it. The key to understanding the South’s role, is its unequal, dependent relationship with the North, based on its technological inferiority. In the long wave upswing, the relationship of dependence is relatively comfortable, and in order to exploit comparative advantage, the South allows it to become closer. This closer integration tends to distort Southern society and economy. At the same time, through its effects on the North, it makes some contribution to the downswing; the downswing, when it comes, has a devastating effect on the South, which now finds its dependent relationship with the North very uncomfortable indeed. After many traumas and internal upheavals, the South succeeds in disengaging somewhat from its dependence; this makes some contribution to the new upswing in the North; and Southern growth is now relaunched in a more favourable internal and external environment.