Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

The Finger on the Pulse of the Economy

  • Conference paper
Book cover In Search of Economic Indicators

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems ((LNE,volume 146))

  • 55 Accesses

Abstract

When in 1948 after the monetary reform the IFO Institute for Economic Research, Munich, interviewed several companies through its associates to find out whether the monetary reform had brought about the desired change1, no one thought that this would be the hour of birth of an information technique that would spread out worldwide2. This special form of survey technique was not completely new in Germany or abroad. The persons who initiated the IFO surveys, which were then undertaken on a monthly basis starting with November 1949, did not know about the “forerunners” in Germany3, nor were they aware of the experiences that had already been achieved in this field abroad4. Also the formal, theoretical foundation and the statistical-methodological basic conditions were largely lacking in the first instance5. This was a typical case of the often-deplored practice without theory. The blame for this is not only the fact that practitioners (i.e. empiricists) often are not very good theoreticians or else they are not at all theoreticians (the opposite is also true, unfortunately), but also the fact that information gathering is often subject to pressure from deadlines which often do not leave sufficient time frame for the time-consuming theoretical considerations.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Notes

  1. H. Langelütke and W. Marquardt: Das Konjunkturtest-Verfahren. “Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv”, Vol. 35 (1951), p. 191.

    Google Scholar 

  2. W. Marquardt and W. Strigel: Der Konjunkturtest. Eine neue Methode der Wirtschaftsbeobachtung. IFO Research Series No. 38, Berlin-München 1959.

    Google Scholar 

  3. W. Strigel: Zur Geschichte der Tendenzbefragung in Deutschland. “IFO-Studien”, Vol. 3 (1957), p. 81 et seq.

    Google Scholar 

  4. See F. O. Bonhoeffer and W. H. Strigel: Amerikanische Unternehmerund Verbraucherbefragungen. IFO Research Series No. 63, Berlin-München 1966.

    Google Scholar 

  5. O. Anderson jun.: Konjunkturtest und Statistik. Möglichkeiten und Grenzen einer Quantifizierung von Testergebnissen. “Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv”, Vol. 35 (1951), p. 209 et seq.

    Google Scholar 

  6. A. Piatier: Nouvelles méthodes pour 1’étude de la conjoncture et la prévision économique. “Kyklos”, Vol. VI (1953/54), p. 37.

    Google Scholar 

  7. The term “Konjunkturumfragen” became the general designation for the IFO surveys in 1965. See W. Strigel: Die Konjunkturumfragen des IFO-Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung. “Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv”, Vol. 49 (1965), p. 129 et seq.

    Google Scholar 

  8. See also F. N. Stutz: Der Konjunkturtest. Neue Wege der Konjunkturdiagnose und -prognose. Veröffentlichungen der Handelshochschule St. Gallen, Series A, No. 49, Zürich and St. Gallen 1957.

    Google Scholar 

  9. See e.g. O. Anderson and W. Strigel: Aussagewert und Determinanten unternehmerischer Urteile und Erwartungen. “CIEET-Studien”, No. 4, München 1965.

    Google Scholar 

  10. Langelütke/Marquardt: loc.cit. p. 197.

    Google Scholar 

  11. Marquardt/Strigel: loc.cit. p. 24.

    Google Scholar 

  12. F. O. Bonhoeffer and W. R. Streck: Der Investitionstest des IFO-Instituts. “IFO-Studien”, Vol. 12 (1966), No. 1/2, p. 43 et seq.

    Google Scholar 

  13. R. Bemerl, F. O. Bonhoeffer and W. H. Strigel: Wie plant die Industrie? “Wirtschaftskonjunktur”, Vol. 18 (1966), No. 1, p. 27 et seq.

    Google Scholar 

  14. W. H. Strigel: Planning in West German Industry. “Long Range Planning”, Vol. 3, No. 1, September 1970, pp. 9–15.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. W. Gerstenberger and W. H. Strigel: “Prognose 100” — Eine neue Umfrage des IFO-Instituts. “IFO-Schnelldienst”, Vol. 24 (1971), No. 37, p. 5 et seq.

    Google Scholar 

  16. M. Gaibinger, G. Nerb and W. H. Strigel: Zur Lebensqualität in der Wirtschaft — Ein Befragungsexperiment. “IFO-Schnelldienst”, Vol. 29 (1976), No. 1.

    Google Scholar 

  17. K. M. Hettlage: Economic Policy and Economic Information. Paper presented at the 9th CIRET Conference on 17.9–1969 in Madrid.

    Google Scholar 

  18. Langelütke/Marquardt: loc.cit. p. 190.

    Google Scholar 

  19. See the first report on the Business Survey in “IFO-Schnelldienst” Vol. 3 (1950), No. 16, p. 1 et seq.

    Google Scholar 

  20. Anderson, loc.cit.

    Google Scholar 

  21. O. Anderson jun., P. K. Bauer and P. Giehl: Zur Theorie des Konjunkturtests — Modelltheoretische Betrachtungen. “IFO-Studien”, Vol. 1 (1955), No. 2, p. 159 et seq.

    Google Scholar 

  22. Strigel: Die Konjunkturumfragen, loc.cit. p. 129.

    Google Scholar 

  23. W. H. Strigel: Konjunkturindikatoren aus qualitativen Daten. “IFO-Studien”, Vol. 18 (1972), No. 2, p. 185 et seq.

    Google Scholar 

  24. See the IPO Bulletin “IPO-Datenbanksystem”.

    Google Scholar 

  25. See e.g. the following investigations: a) J. Crockett and I. Friend: (The Integration of Business Investment Plans and other Anticipatory Data into Short-Term Forecasting Models. Paper presented at the 8th CIRET Conference in Paris, on 10.5.1967.

    Google Scholar 

  26. Y. Haitovsky and G. Treyz: The Information Value of Anticipation Data in Macro-Econometric Model Forecast. Paper presented at the 10th CIPET Conference in Brussels, on 17.9.1971.

    Google Scholar 

  27. P. Fair: Experience with a Short-Pun Forecasting Model of the United States Economy. Paper presented at the 11th CIRET Conference in London, on 15.3.1973.

    Google Scholar 

  28. G. Poser: Theoretical Implications and Empirical Results of the Use of Anticipatory Data in a Macro-economic Model. Paper presented at the 12th CIPET Conference in Stockholm, on 25.6.1975.

    Google Scholar 

  29. Strigel: loc.cit. p. 203.See also “Konjunktur-Indikatoren”, Specific publication No. 7 of “Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv”, Göttingen 1975, p. 51 et seq. — See also “Cyclical Indicators”, that are based to a large extent on business surveys, in “Main Economic Indicators”, ed. by O.E.C.D., Paris. part III.

    Google Scholar 

  30. G. Nerb: Konjunkturprognose mit Hilfe von Urteilen und Erwartungen der Konsumenten und der Unternehmer. IFO Research Series No. 86, Berlin 1975, p. 222 et seq.

    Google Scholar 

  31. See Anderson, Konjunkturtest und Statistik. Möglichkeiten und Grenzen einer Quantifizierung von Testergebnissen. “Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv”, Vol. 35 (1951), p. 209

    Google Scholar 

  32. Anderson/Bauer/Giehl: Zur Theorie des Konjunkturtests — Modelltheoretische Betrachtungen. “IFO-Studien”, Vol. 1 (1955), No. 2, p. 159

    Google Scholar 

  33. also: J. D. Lindlbauer: Zum Aussagewert der Nachfragevariablen im IFO-Konjunkturtest. “CIRET-Studien” No. 8, München 1967, By the same author: Schätzung des Produktionsindex mit Hilfe von Ex-post- und Ex-ante-Daten des Konjunkturtests. “CIRET-Studien”, No. 11 München 1969.

    Google Scholar 

  34. F. Söffner in co-operation with J. D. Lindlbauer and I. Ruderer: Das Bauhauptgewerbe im Spiegel von IFO-Konjunktur-test und Statistik. “IFO-Studien zur Bauwirtschaft”, No. 3, München 1975.

    Google Scholar 

  35. W. Gerstenberger, J. D. Lindlbauer, G. Nerb and W. H. Strigel: Die Abschwungsphase 1966/67 im Lichte der Konjunkturindikatoren. “Wirtschaftskonjunktur”, Vol. 22 (1970), No. 1, p. 35 et seq.

    Google Scholar 

  36. Strigel: loc.cit.

    Google Scholar 

  37. Ch. C. Roberts: Makroökonomische Konjunkturindikatoren für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland. “CIRET-Studien” No. 22, München 1975.

    Google Scholar 

  38. See M. Starzmann and D. P. Wehowski: Zur Treffsicherheit unternehmerischer Erwartungen im Zeitablauf. Mimeographed copy. München 1960.

    Google Scholar 

  39. P. O. Bonhoeffer and W. H. Strigel: Investitionsplanung und Güte der Investitionvoraussagen in der westdeutschen Industrie. “CIRET-Studien” No. 9, München 1967, p. 10 et seq.

    Google Scholar 

  40. See e.g. W. Gerstenherger: Prognostic Application of Investment Plans for Forecasting Macroeconomic Capital Expenditures. Paper presented at the 11th CIRET Conference in London, on 13.9.1973.

    Google Scholar 

  41. See e.g. O. Anderson gun. and W. H. Strigel: Empirische Untersuchungen des Unternehmerverhaltens anhand von Konjunkturtest-Daten. “IPO-Studien”, Vol. 6 (1960), p. 143 et seq.

    Google Scholar 

  42. O. Hatzold and H. Helmschrott: Analyse unternehmerischer Verhaltensweisen. IPO Research Series No. 44, Berlin 1961.

    Google Scholar 

  43. O. Anderson gun.: Ein Grundkonzept zur Kongunkturtest-Auswertung. “IPO-Studien”, Vol. 18 (1972), No. 2, p. 213 et seq.

    Google Scholar 

  44. See e.g. O. Anderson gun., R. K. Bauer and E. Pels: On the Accuracy of Short-Term Entrepreneurial Expectations. Contribution to the Montreal Meeting of the Business and Economic Statistics Section of the American Statistical Association. Economic Forecasting Techniques I, Sept. 10, 1954.

    Google Scholar 

  45. Bonhoeffer/Strigel: Investitionsplanung und Güte der Investitionvoraussagen in der westdeutschen Industrie. “CIRET-Studien” No. 9, München 1967, p. 10 .

    Google Scholar 

  46. Langelütke/Marquardt: loc.cit. p. 206.

    Google Scholar 

  47. Quoted from a contribution to a discussion at the Meeting of the Council for Economic Advisers of the IPO Institute in May 1952.

    Google Scholar 

  48. See e.g. O. Anderson gun., P. K. Bauer, H. Führer and J. P. Petersen: Ursachen und Typen kurzfristiger Produktions- und Preisplanrevisionen der Unternehmer. “IPO-Studien”, Vol. 2 (1956), p. 1 et seq.

    Google Scholar 

  49. See P. Machmek: Behandlung und Erkenntnis wert der Erwartungen in der Wirtschaftstheorie. “Volkswirtschaftliche Schriften”, No. 111, ed. by J. Broermann, Berlin 1968, p. 53 et seq.

    Google Scholar 

  50. J. M. Keynes: Allgemeine Theorie der Beschäftigung, des Zinses und des Geldes. Berlin 1955, p. 125.

    Google Scholar 

  51. W. A. Jöhr: Die Konjunkturschwankungen. Tübingen 1952, p. 588 et seq.

    Google Scholar 

  52. W. A. Jöhr: Zur Rolle des psychologischen Paktors in der Konjunkturtheorie. “IPO-Studien”, Vol. 18 (1972), p. 157 et seq.

    Google Scholar 

  53. G. Katona: Das Verhalten der Verbraucher und Unternehmer. Tübingen 1960. — G. Schmölders: Ökonomische Verhaltensforschung. Arbeitsgemeinschaft für Forschung des Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen, No. 71, Köln-Opladen, no date.

    Google Scholar 

  54. Anderson, Bauer et al., loc.cit.

    Google Scholar 

  55. J. P. Petersen and R. Petersen: Unternehmerische Reaktionsweisen in der Zeit. “CIRET-Studien” No. 5, München 1965.

    Google Scholar 

  56. Jöhr: Zur Rolle ..., loc.cit. p. 159.

    Google Scholar 

  57. Roberts, loc.cit. p. 69

    Google Scholar 

  58. See W. H. Strigel: Tenth CIRET Conference — Retrospect and Outlook. Paper presented at the 10th CIRET Conference in Brussels, 15.–17.9.1971.

    Google Scholar 

  59. In the CIRET archives of the IPO Institute there are texts with 250 papers and written contributions that were supplied for the 12 last CIRET Conferences.

    Google Scholar 

  60. See: The Harmonized Business Surveys in the Community: Principles and Methods, publ. by the Commission of the EEC, Brussels 1963.

    Google Scholar 

  61. G. Nerb and W. H. Strigel: Konjunkturumfragen bei Konsumenten in verschiedenen Ländern. “CIKET-Studien” No. 21, München 1974.

    Google Scholar 

  62. E. Fels: Maß und Richtung. Zur Aggregation dreiwertiger Signalkonstellationen im IFO-Konjunkturtestverfahren. “Statistische Vierteljahreszeitschrift”, Vienna, Vol. 7 (1954), p. 57 et seq.

    Google Scholar 

  63. M. Ziegler: Spezialliteratur über Konjunkturumfragen. “CIEET-Studien” No. 10, München 1968.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Authors
  1. W. H. Strigel
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. IFO Institute for Economic Research, Munich, Germany

    Werner H. Strigel

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 1977 Springer-Verlag Berlin · Heidelberg

About this paper

Cite this paper

Strigel, W.H. (1977). The Finger on the Pulse of the Economy. In: Strigel, W.H. (eds) In Search of Economic Indicators. Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, vol 146. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-48304-2_1

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-48304-2_1

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-540-08346-7

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-48304-2

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation