Summary
Bayesian methods are applied to the ifo business climate to predict the state of the German economy at the beginning of 1996. The models predict a cyclical downturn. However, 1996 is not registered as a recession year in Germany. It is argued that Germany was in fact in a recession and that business cycle timing is in a poor state. Official GDP data for 1996 is implausibly high.
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© 1998 Physica-Verlag Heidelberg
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Naggl, W. (1998). Bayesian Forecasting of Turning Points in Economic Cycles. In: Galata, R., Küchenhoff, H. (eds) Econometrics in Theory and Practice. Physica-Verlag HD. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-47027-1_20
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-47027-1_20
Publisher Name: Physica-Verlag HD
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-47029-5
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