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Forecasting Techniques in Logistics

  • Conference paper
Advances in Distribution Logistics

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems ((LNE,volume 460))

Abstract

This article deals with the selection of distribution control techniques and discusses one element of distribution control, the type of forecasting techniques. It first goes into the detail of a classification of distribution control decisions, the bigger framework underlying this article which can be used to select appropriate distribution control techniques. The type of forecasting technique is one of these distribution control decisions, and this is the topic of discussion for the rest of the article. The results of case study research and literature research on the application of forecasting techniques are described. A simulation model is presented, which is used to research the usefulness of forecasting techniques. As opposed to most research on forecasting, the relation between characteristics of products, processes and markets on different types of forecasting techniques is investigated from a logistics perspective in this simulation. The effect of forecasting techniques is assessed based on the impact the techniques have on the inventory level, not on a forecast accuracy measure. Two techniques are discriminated: techniques that can incorporate demand patterns and techniques that can not incorporate these patterns. It appears that the combination of a seasonal pattern or a trend in demand with demand uncertainty has a significant impact on the choice between these two techniques. Only if demand uncertainty is low and if demand contains clear patterns, forecasting techniques that can incorporate demand patterns outperform those that can not.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA

    Sander de Leeuw

  2. Management Division, Babson College, Babson Park, MA, 02157, USA

    Sander de Leeuw

  3. School of Technology Management, Eindhoven University of Technology, P.O Box 513, 5600 MB, Eindhoven, The Netherlands

    Karel van Donselaar & Ton de Kok

Authors
  1. Sander de Leeuw
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  2. Karel van Donselaar
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  3. Ton de Kok
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Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Production and Logistics, University of Augsburg, Universitätsstraße 16, D-86135, Augsburg, Germany

    Bernhard Fleischmann

  2. Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, P.O. Box 1738, NL-3000 DR, Rotterdam, The Netherlands

    Jo A. E. E. van Nunen

  3. Department of Quantitative Methods, University of Brescia, C. da S. Chiara 48b, I-25122, Brescia, Italy

    M. Grazia Speranza

  4. Institute for Operations Research, University of St. Gallen, Bodanstraße 6, CH-900, St. Gallen, Switzerland

    Paul Stähly

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© 1998 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

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de Leeuw, S., van Donselaar, K., de Kok, T. (1998). Forecasting Techniques in Logistics. In: Fleischmann, B., van Nunen, J.A.E.E., Speranza, M.G., Stähly, P. (eds) Advances in Distribution Logistics. Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, vol 460. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-46865-0_20

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-46865-0_20

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-540-64288-6

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-46865-0

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

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