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The Effect of Social Mixing Patterns on the Spread of AIDS

  • Conference paper
Mathematical Approaches to Problems in Resource Management and Epidemiology

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Biomathematics ((LNBM,volume 81))

Abstract

Mathematical models of the transmission of the AIDS virus can help us better understand the spread of the AIDS epidemic and prepare for the future. Model explorations can indicate which factors the epidemic is most sensitive to and provide guidance in designing interventions, educational programs and social behavior studies. We explore the sensitivity of a transmission model to different social mixing patterns. This model continuously distributes a homosexual community according to sexual partner change rates and can account for infectivity and conversion times that vary with time since infection. An acceptance function determines which partners are acceptable to an individual and defines the mixing between groups with different partner change rates. We find that if people only select partners with very similar behavior the epidemic grows much slower than if they are not as discriminating. Therefore, understanding social mixing patterns may be one of the most urgent tasks if we are to anticipate the future. We also find that the epidemic is sensitive to variable infectivity and conversion times.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Theoretical Division, MS-B284 Center for Nonlinear Studies, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87545, USA

    James M. Hyman & E. Ann Stanley

Authors
  1. James M. Hyman
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  2. E. Ann Stanley
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Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Biometrics Unit and Center for Applied Mathematics, Cornell University, 14853, Ithaca, NY, USA

    Carlos Castillo-Chavez

  2. Section of Ecology and Systematics, Center for Environmental Research and Center for Applied Mathematics, Cornell University, 14853, Ithaca, NY, USA

    Simon A. Levin

  3. School of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Center for Applied Mathematics, Cornell University, 14853, Ithaca, NY, USA

    Christine A. Shoemaker

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© 1989 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

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Hyman, J.M., Stanley, E.A. (1989). The Effect of Social Mixing Patterns on the Spread of AIDS. In: Castillo-Chavez, C., Levin, S.A., Shoemaker, C.A. (eds) Mathematical Approaches to Problems in Resource Management and Epidemiology. Lecture Notes in Biomathematics, vol 81. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-46693-9_15

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-46693-9_15

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-540-51820-4

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-46693-9

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

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