Abstract
Throughout this book we have described how interaction between market participants can occur through the price, with choices by market participants that depend on the price trajectories created by other traders. In the last chapter, we also discussed how price formation results from the social dynamics between large groups of individuals, where one financial market uses the outcome of other financial markets in order to decide how to price an asset properly.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
G.A. Akerlof, R.J. Shiller, Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism (Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2009)
J.V. Andersen, D. Sornette, Have your cake and eat it too: increasing returns while lowering large risks! J. Risk Financ. 2, 70 (Spring 2001). See also D. Sornette, J.V. Andersen, P. Simonetti, Minimizing volatility increases large risks. Int. J. Theor. Appl. Financ. 3(3), 523–535 (2000). For a general review of the method, see D. Sornette, P. Simonetti, J.V. Andersen, ϕ q-field theory for portfolio optimisation: ‘Fat tails’ and non-linear correlations. Phys. Rep. 335(2), 19–92 (2000). For a quantitative treatment of the method, see [89]
J.V. Andersen, D. Sornette, Fearless versus fearful speculative financial bubbles. Physica A 337, 565 (2004)
J.V. Andersen, D. Sornette, Predicting failure using conditioning on damage history: demonstration on percolation and hierarchical fiber bundles. Phys. Rev. E 72, 056124 (2005). The article can be retrieved from the site arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0508424
J.V. Andersen, S. Gluzman, D. Sornette, Fundamental framework for technical analysis of market prices. Eur. Phys. J. B 14, 579–601 (2000)
J.V. Andersen, A. Nowak, G. Rotundo, L. Parrot, S. Martinez, Price-quakes shaking the world’s stock exchanges. PLoS ONE 6(11), e26472 (2011). doi:10.1371/journal.pone. 0026472. Available from www.plosone/article/info and arxiv.org/abs/0912.3771
J.V. Andersen, S. Galam, V. Ioannis, P. Dellaportas, A socio-financial pricing model of communication. PLoS ONE (2013, submitted)
W. Antweiler, M.Z. Frank, Is all that talk just noise? The information content of internet stock message boards. J. Financ. 59(3), 1259–1294 (2004)
B. Arthur, Bounded rationality and inductive behavior (the El Farol problem). Am. Econ. Rev. Pap. Proc. 84, 406 (1994)
K.-H. Bae, G.A. Karolyi, R.M. Stulz, A new approach to measuring financial contagion. Rev. Financ. Stud. 16(3), 717–763 (2003)
P. Bak, How Nature Works: The Science of Self-Organized Criticality (Copernicus Press, New York, 1996)
P. Bak, C. Tang, K. Weisenfeld, Self-organized criticality: an explanation of 1∕f noise. Phys. Rev. Lett. 59, 381–384 (1987). doi:10.1103
E. Balogh, I. Simonsen, B. Nagy, Z. Neda, Persistent collective trends in stock markets’. Phys. Rev. E 82, 066113 (2010)
A. Bandura, Social Learning Theory (Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, 1977)
R.H. Bates, Analytic Narratives (Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1998)
R.J. Bauer, J.R. Dahlquist, Technical Market Indicators, Analysis and Performance (Wiley, New York, 1999)
P.L. Berger, T. Luckmann, Social Construction of Reality: A Treatise in the Sociology of Knowledge (Anchor Books, Garden City, 1966)
S. Bikhchandani, D. Hirshleifer, I. Welch, Learning from the behavior of others: conformity, fads, and informational cascades. J. Econ. Perspect. 12(3), 151–170 (1998)
M. Billio, G. Mila, A.W. Lo, L. Pelizzon, Measuring systemic risk in finance and insurance sectors. MIT Sloan research paper no. 4774-10, Mar 2010. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1571277
J.-P. Bouchaud, R. Cont, A Langevin approach to stock market fluctuations and crashes. Eur. Phys. J. B 6, 543–550 (1998)
Buttonwood – Betting on Ben. The Economist, 19 Feb 2011, p. 83
By a market share is understood a portfolio of stocks from which the financial market index is composed
T.N. Carracher, D.W Carracher, A.D. Schliemann, Mathematics in the streets and at school. Br. J. Dev. Psychol. 3, 21–29 (1985)
A. Cavagna, Phys. Rev. E 59, R3783 (1999)
D. Challet, R. Stinchcombe, Analyzing and modelling 1 + 1d markets. Physica A 300, 285–299 (2001)
D. Challet, Y.-C. Zhang, On the minority game: analytical and numerical studies. Physica A 256, 514 (1998)
D. Challet, Y.-C. Zhang, On the minority game: analytical and numerical studies. Physica A 256, 514 (1998); Y.-C. Zhang, Modeling market mechanism with evolutionary games. Europhys. News 29, 51 (1998)
L.K.C. Chan, J. Lakonishok, Institutional trades and intraday stock price behavior. J. Financ. Econ. 33, 173 (1995)
H. Chen, V. Singal, Role of speculative short sales in price formation: case of the weekend effect. J. Financ. 58, 685–706 (2003)
T. Chordia, R. Roll, A. Subrahmanyam, J. Financ. Econ. 65, 111 (2002)
N.A. Christakis, J.H. Fowler, Connected: The Surprising Power of Our Social Networks and How They Shape Our Lives (Little Brown & Company, New York, 2009)
J.M. Coates, J. Herbert, Endogenous steroids and financial risk taking on a London trading floor. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 105(16), 6167–6172 (2008); J.M. Coates, M. Gurnell, A. Rustichini, Second-to-fourth digit ratio predicts success among high-frequency financial traders. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 106(2), 623–628 (2009)
R. Cont, Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues. Quant. Financ. 1(2), 223–235 (2001)
B. Czarniawska-Joerges, Narratives in Social Science Research (Sage, London/Thousand Oaks, 2004)
A. Damasio, The Feeling of What Happens: Body and Emotion in the Making of Consciousness NY, US. (Harvest Books, New York, 2000)
B. DasGupta, L. Kaligounder, Global stability of financial networks against contagion: measure, evaluation, and implications (2012). arXiv:1208.3789
O. De Bandt, P. Hartmann, Systemic risk: a survey. European central bank working paper no. 35, Nov 2000. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=258430
J.B. De Long, A. Schleifer, L.H. Summers, R.J. Waldmann, Noise trader risk in financial markets. J. Pol. Econ. 98, 703–738 (1990)
J.B. De Long, A. Schleifer, L.H. Summers, R.J. Waldmann, The survival of noise traders in financial markets. J. Bus. 64, 1–19 (1991)
E. Dimson, P. Marsh, M. Staunton, Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Sourcebook 2010 (London Business School, Zurich, 2010)
A. Dodonova, Y. Khoroshilov, Anchoring and transaction utility: evidence from online auctions. Appl. Econ. Lett. 11, 307 (2004)
G. Echterhoff, T. Higgins, J.M. Levine, Shared reality: experiencing commonality with others’ inner states about the world. Perspect. Psychol. Sci. 4, 496–521 (2009)
Even though Storm Petersen used the phrase, it is not entirely sure who actually invented it. See, for example, http://politiken.dk/pol_oplys/ECE122209/hvem-sagde-det-er-svaert-at-spaa---isaer-om-fremtiden/
J.D. Farmer, Market force, ecology and evolution. Ind. Corp. Change 11(5), 895–953 (2002)
K.L. Fisher, M. Statman, Investor sentiment and stock returns. Financ. Anal. J. 56(2), 16–23 (2000)
For a central book on experimental economics, see for example, K. Binmore, Does Game Theory Work? The Bargaining Challenge. Economic Learning and Social Evolution (MIT, Cambridge, 2007)
For a large collection of free technical analysis materials, see http://decisionpoint.com/
For a review, see R.J. Shiller, From efficient market theory to behavioral finance, http://papers.ssrn.com/abstract_id=349660
For discussion, see for example, S.F. Leroy, Excess volatility. UCSB working paper (2005). Available at http://www.econ.ucsb.edu/~sleroy/downloads/excess.pdf
For some academic litterature on technical analysis, see, e.g., J.A. Murphy, Futures fund performance: a test of the effectiveness of technical analysis. J. Futures Mark. 6, 175–185 (Summer 1986); W. Brock, J. Lakonishok, B. LeBaron, Simple technical trading rules and the stochastic properties of stock returns. J. Financ. 47, 1731–1764 (1992)
For some articles discussing such topics, see D. MacKenzie, Long-term capital management and the sociology of arbitrage. Econ. Soc. 32(3), 349–380 (2003); D. Beunza, I. Hardie, D. MacKenzie, A price is a social thing: towards a material sociology of arbitrage. Organ. Stud. 27, 721 (2006); S.A. Ross, Neoclassical finance, alternative finance and the closed end fund puzzle. Eur. Financ. Manage. 8(2), 129–137 (2002)
L. Gagnon, G.A. Karolyi, Price and volatility transmission across borders. Working paper series 2006-5, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. Available at http://ideas.repec.org/p/ecl/ohidic/2006-5.html
S. Galam, Local dynamics vs. social mechanisms: a unifying frame. Europhys. Lett. 70(6), 705–711 (2005)
S. Galam, A Physicist’s Modeling of Psycho-Political Phenomena (Springer, Berlin, 2012)
M. Gell-Mann, F.E. Low, Phys. Rev. 95(5), 1300 (1954)
I. Giardina, J.-P. Bouchaud, M. Mézard, Physica A 299, 28 (2001)
L. Gil, A simple algorithm based on fluctuations to play the market. Fluct. Noise Lett. 7(4), L405–L418 (2007)
P.M. Gollwitzer, J.A. Bargh (eds.), The Psychology of Action. Linking Cognition and Motivation to Behavior (Guilford Press, New York, 1996)
B. Graham (1894–1976) was an American economist who is quoted as saying that In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine. He was a mentor to investors like, e.g., Warren Buffet, especially because of the second part of this statement, but in this book we shall place emphasis on the notion of the financial market as a voting machine
J. Grimes, On the failure to detect changes in scenes across saccades, in Perception, ed. by K. Akins. Vancouver Studies in Cognitive Science, vol. 2 (Oxford University Press, New York, 1996), pp. 89–110
J.L Grzelak, M. Poppe, Z. Czwartosz, A. Nowak, Numerical trap. A new look at outcome representation in studies on choice behaviour. Eur. J. Soc. Psychol. 18(2), 143–159 (1988)
K. Heilmann, V. Laeger, A. Oehler, The disposition effect: evidence about the investor’s aversion to realize losses, in Proceedings of the 25th Annual Colloquium, Wien (IAREP, 2000)
E.T. Higgins, Promotion and prevention: regulatory focus as a motivational principle. Adv. Exp. Soc. Psychol. 30, 1–46 (1998)
R.W. Holthausen, R.W. Leftwich, D. Mayers, The effect of large block transactions on security prices: a cross-sectional analysis. J. Financ. Econ. 19, 237 (1987)
C.H. Hommes, Complexity, evolution and learning: a simple story of heterogeneous expectations and some empirical and experimental validation. Technical report, CeNDEF, University of Amsterdam, 2007
K. Hou, G.A. Karolyi, B.C. Kho, What factors drive global stock returns. Working paper series 2006-9, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. Available at http://ideas.repec.org/p/ecl/ohidic/2006-9.html
However, the field of econo-physics provides an exception. To find out more about this field, we suggest the following: J.P. Bouchaud, M. Potters, Theory of Financial Risks (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge/New York, 2000); N.F. Johnson, P. Jefferies, P.M. Hui, Financial Market Complexity (Oxford University Press, Oxford/New York, 2003); R.N. Mantegna, H.E. Stanley, An Introduction to Econophysics: Correlations and Complexity in Finance (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge/New York, 2000); J.L. McCauley, Dynamics of Markets: Econophysics and Finance (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge/New York, 2004); B.M. Roehner, Patterns of Speculation: A Study in Observational Econophysics (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge/New York, 2002); D. Sornette, Why Stock Markets Crash (Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems) (Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2003)
International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Report, Apr 2009. Available at http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/gfsr/2009/01/pdf/text.pdf
N.F. Johnson, M. Hart, P. Hui, Crowd effects and volatility in markets with competing agents. Physica A 269, 1–8 (1999); M. Hart, P. Jefferies, P. Hui, Crowd–anti-crowd theory of the minority game. Physica A 298, 537–544 (2000)
P.N. Johnson-Laird, Mental Models: Towards a Cognitive Science of Language, Inference, and Consciousness, vol. 6 (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, 1983)
R.H. Jones, D.H. Crowell, L.E. Kapuniai, Change detection model for serially correlated data. Psychol. Bull. 71(5), 352–358 (1969)
L.P. Kadanoff, Scaling laws for Ising models near T c. Physics 2, 263 (1966)
D. Kahneman, A. Tversky, Prospect theory: an analysis of decision-making under risk. Econometrica 47(2), 263–292 (1979)
D. Kahneman, A. Tversky (eds.), Choices, Values, and Frames (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000)
Y. Khoroshilov, A. Dodonova, Buying winners while holding on to losers: an experimental study of investors’ behavior. Econ. Bull. 7(8), 1–8 (2007)
B. Knowlton, M.M. Grynbaum, Greenspan shocked that free markets are flawed. New York Times, 23 Oct 2008
M. Kritzman, Y. Li, S. Page, R. Rigobon, Principal components as a measure of systemic risk. MIT Sloan research paper no. 4774-10, July 2010. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1633027
A. Kruglanski, Motivated closing of the mind. Psychol. Rev. 103, 263–283 (1996)
J. Lakonishok, A. Shleifer, R. Thaler, R.W. Vishny, The impact of institutional trading on stock price. J. Financ. Econ. 32, 23 (1991)
D. Lamper, S.D. Howison, N.F. Johnson, Predictability of large future changes in a competitive evolving population. Phys. Rev. Lett. 88, 017902 (2002)
K.-T. Leung, J. Möller, J.V. Andersen, Generalization of a two-dimensional Burridge–Knopoff model of earthquakes. J. Phys. I 7, 423 (1997)
M. Lewenstein, A. Nowak, B. Latané, Statistical mechanics of social impact. Phys. Rev. A 45(2), 763 (1992); A. Nowak, M. Lewenstein, P. Frejlak, Dynamics of public opinion and social change, in Chaos and Order in Nature and Theory, ed. by R. Hegselman, U. Miller (Helbin, Vienna, 1996), pp. 54–78; A. Nowak, B. Latane, M. Lewenstein, Social dilemmas exist in space, in Social Dilemmas and Cooperation, ed. by U. Schulz, W. Albers, U. Mueller (Springer, Berlin/Heidelberg, 1994), pp. 269–289
K. Lewin, Resolving Social Conflicts and Field Theory in Social Science (American Psychology Association, Washington, D.C., 1997)
T.D. Lewin, N. Momen, S.B. Drifdahl, D.J. Simons, Change blindness, the metacognitive error of etimating change detection ability. Vision 7(1–3), 397–413 (2000)
H. Linke, M.T. Downton, M. Zuchermann, Chaos 15, 026111 (2005)
J. Lintner, The valuation of risk assets and selection of risky investments in stock portfolios and capital budgets. Rev. Econ. Stat. 47(1), 13–37 (1965)
R. Lucas, Econometric policy evaluation: a critique, in The Philips Curve and Labor Markets, ed. by K. Brunner, A. Meltzer. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, vol. 1 (American Elsevier, New York, 1976), pp. 19–46. ISBN:0444110070
K. Lund-Jensen, Monitoring systemic risk based on dynamic thresholds. IMF working paper no. 12/159, June 2012. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2127539
Y. Malevergne, D. Sornette, Multi-moments method for portfolio management: generalized capital asset pricing model in homogeneous and heterogeneous markets, in Multi-moment Asset Allocation and Pricing Models, ed. by B. Maillet, E. Jurczenko (Wiley, Chichester/ Hoboken, 2006), pp. 165–193; Y. Malevergne, D. Sornette, Higher-moment portfolio theory (capitalizing on behavioral anomalies of stock markets). J. Portf. Manage. 31(4), 49–55 (2005); Y. Malevergne, D. Sornette, Multivariate Weibull distributions for asset returns I. Financ. Lett. 2(6), 16–32 (2004); Y. Malevergne, D. Sornette, High-order moments and cumulants of multivariate Weibull asset return distributions: analytical theory and empirical tests II. Financ. Lett. 3(1), 54–63 (2004)
A. Malinowski, Communication as a factor in investment decision-making. Masters thesis (in Polish), Advanced School for Social Sciences and Humanities, 2010
H.J. Maris, L.P. Kadanoff, Teaching the renormalization group. Am. J. Phys. 46(6), 653–657 (1978)
H. Markovitz, Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments (Wiley, New York, 1959)
J.L. McCauley, K.E. Bassler, G.H. Gunaratne, Detrending data and the efficient market hypothesis. Physica A 37, 202 (2008); K.E. Bassler, J.L. McCauley, G.H. Gunaratne, Nonstationary increments, scaling distributions and variable diffusion processes in financial markets. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 104, 17297 (2007)
G.H. Mead, Mind, Self, and Society (University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1934)
R. Mehra, E.C. Prescott, The equity premium: a puzzle. J. Monet. Econ. 15(2), 145–161 (1985)
R.C. Merton, Continuous-Time Finance (Blackwell, Cambridge, 1990)
D.M. Messick, C.G. McClintock, Motivational bases of choice in experimental games. J. Exp. Soc. Psychol. 4(1), 1–25 (1968)
Momentum in financial markets: why Newton was wrong. The Economist, 8 Jan 2011, pp. 69–70
S. Moscovici, The phenomenon of social representations. Soc. Represent. 3, 69 (1984)
B.I. Murstein, Regression to the mean: one of the most neglected but important concepts in the stock market. J. Behav. Financ. 4, 234–237 (2003)
J.F. Muth, Rational expectations and the theory of price movements (1961); reprinted in The New Classical Macroeconomics, Vol. 1. International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, vol. 19 (Elgar, Aldershot, 1992), pp. 3–23
G.B. Northcraft, M.A. Neale, Experts, amateurs, and real estate: an anchoring and adjustment perspective on property pricing decisions. Organ. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 39, 84 (1987)
A. Nowak, J. Szamrej, B. Latane, From private attitude to public opinion: a dynamic theory of social impact. Psychol. Rev. 97, 362–376 (1990)
T. Odean, Are investors reluctant to realize their losses? J. Financ. 53, 1775–1798 (1998)
Z. Olami, H.J.S. Feder, K. Christensen, Self-organized criticality in a continuous, nonconservative cellular automaton modeling earthquakes. Phys. Rev. Lett. 68, 1244–1247 (1992)
J.K. O’Regan, R.A. Rensink, J.J. Clark, Change-blindness as a result of mudsplashes. Nature 398(6722), 34 (1999)
J. Panksepp, Affective Neuroscience: The Foundations of Human and Animal Emotions, vol. 4 (Oxford University Press, New York/Oxford, 2004)
H. Pashler, Familiarity and visual change detection. Percept. Psychophys. 44(4), 369–378 (1988)
P. Peigneux, P. Orban, E. Balteau, C. Degueldre, A. Luxen, Offline persistence of memory-related cerebral activity during active wakefulness. PLoS Biol. 4(4), e100. doi:10.1371/ journal.pbio.0040100 (2006)
H.D. Platt, A fuller theory of short selling. J. Asset Manage. 5(1), 49–63 (2002)
V. Plerou, P. Gopikrishnan, L. Amaral, M. Meyer, H.E. Stanley, Scaling of the distribution of fluctuations of financial market indicies. Phys. Rev. E 60, 6519–6529 (1999); G. Xavier, P.Gopikrishnan, V. Plerou, H.E. Stanley, A theory of power law distributions in financial market fluctuations. Nature 423, 267–230 (2003)
V. Plerou, P. Gopikrishnan, X. Gabaix, H.E. Stanley, Quantifying stock-price response to demand fluctuations: a theory of the cubic laws of financial activity. Phys. Rev. E 66, 027104 (2002)
D.E. Polkinghorne, Narrative and self-concept. J. Narrat. Life Hist. 1(2), 135–153 (1991)
T. Preis, D.Y. Kennett, H.E. Stanley, D. Helbing, E. Ben-Jacob, Quantifying the behavior of stock correlations under market stress. Sci. Rep. 2, 752. doi:10.1038/srep00752 (2012)
Z.W. Pylyshun, What the mind’s eye tells the mind’s brain: a critique of mental imagery. Psychol. Bull. 80, 1–24 (1973)
R.A. Rensink, Change detection. Annu. Rev. Psychol. 53, 245–277 (2002)
D. Rodrik, In Search of Prosperity: Analytic Narratives on Economic Growth (Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2003)
M. Roszczynska, A. Nowak, D. Kamieniarz, S. Solomon, J. Vitting Andersen, Short and long term investor synchronization caused by decoupling. PLoS ONE 7, e50700 (2012). doi:10.1371journal.pone.0050700. The article can be retrieved from the website http://dx.plos.org10.1371journal.pone.0050700
P.A. Samuelson, Proof that properly anticipated prices fluctuate randomly. Ind. Manage. Rev. 6(2), 41–49 (1965); E.F. Fama, Efficient capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work. J. Financ. 25, 383–417 (1970); P.A. Samuelson, Collected Scientific Papers (MIT, Cambridge, 1972)
R. Savit et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 2203 (1999); D. Challet, M. Marsili, Phys. Rev. E 62, 1862 (2000)
R. Schank, R. Abelson, Scripts, Plans, Goals, and Understanding (Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Hillsdale, 1977)
W.F. Sharpe, Capital asset prices: a theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. J. Financ. 19(3), 425–442 (1964)
H. Shefrin, A Behavioral Approach to Asset Pricing. Academic Press Advanced Finance Series, Chap. 15 (Academic/Elsevier, Amsterdam/Boston, 2008)
H.M. Shefrin, M. Statman, The disposition to sell winners too early and rise losers too long. J. Financ. 40, 777 (1985)
R.J. Shiller, Do stock prices move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in dividends. Am. Econ. Rev. 71, 421–436 (1981); S.D. LeRoy, R.D. Porter, Stock price volatility: tests based on implied variance bounds. Econometrica 49, 97–113 (1981)
Similar results have been found for individual stocks of a given stock market. See, e.g., F. Longin, B. Solnik, Is the correlation in international equity returns constant 1960–1990. J. Int. Money Financ. 14, 3–26 (1995); P. Cizeau, M. Potters, J.-P. Bouchaud, Correlation structure of extreme stock returns. Quant. Financ. 1, 217–222 (2001)
H.A. Simon, A behavioral model of rational choice. Q. J. Econ. 69(1), 99–118 (1955)
D.J. Simons, C.F. Chabris, T. Schnur, Evidence for preserved representations in change blindness. Conscious. Cogn. 11, 78–97 (2002)
D. Sornette, Predictability of catastrophic events: material rupture, earthquakes, turbulence, financial crashes and human birth. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 99(SUPP1), 2522–2529 (2002); K. Ide, D. Sornette, Oscillatory finite-time singularities in finance, population and rupture. Physica A 307(1–2), 63–106 (2002); D. Sornette, K. Ide, Theory of self-similar oscillatory finite-time singularities in finance, population and rupture. Int. J. Mod. Phys. C 14(3), 267–275 (2002); D. Sornette, W.-X. Zhou, Quant. Financ. 2, 468 (2002); D. Sornette, W.-X. Zhou, Evidence of fueling of the 2000 new economy bubble by foreign foreign capital inflow: implications for the future of the US economy and its stock market. Physica A 332, 412–440 (2004); D. Sornette, W.-X. Zhou, Predictability of large future changes in major financial indices. Int. J. Forecast. 22, 153–168 (2006)
D. Sornette, J.V. Andersen, Increments of uncorrelated time series can be predicted with a universal 75 % probability of success. Int. J. Mod. Phys. C 11(4), 713–720 (2000)
D. Sornette, J.V. Andersen, A nonlinear super-exponential rational model of speculative financial bubbles. Int. Mod. Phys. C 13(2), 171–187 (2001)
D. Sornette, J.V. Andersen, Optimal prediction of time-to-failure from information revealed by damage. Europhys. Lett. E 74(5), 778 (2006). The article can be retrieved from the site arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0511134
E.C.G. Stueckelberg, A. Petermann, Helv. Phys. Acta 26, 499 (1953)
Taking the risk-free return used in the usual definition of the Sharpe ratio equal to 0
P. Tetlock, Giving content to investor sentiment: the role of media in the stock market. J. Financ. LXII(3), 1139–1168 (2007)
The data used to construct Fig. 2.3 was taken from 1/1/2000 to 20/6/2008
The following important point of view was pointed out to the authors by D. Sornette
The minority game was introduced in the two papers: D. Challet, Y.-C. Zhang, Emergence of cooperation and organization in an evolutionary game. Physica A 246, 407–418 (1997); D. Challet, Y.-C. Zhang, On the minority game: analytical and numerical studies. Physica A 256, (1998); see also the book D. Challet, M. Marsili, Y.-C. Zhang, Minority Games: Interacting Agents in Financial Markets (Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2004)
A. Tversky, D. Kahneman, Subjective probability: a judgment of representativeness. Cogn. Psychol. 2, 430–454 (1972)
A. Tversky, D. Kahneman, Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Science 185, 1124 (1974)
A. Tversky, D. Kahneman, The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science 211(4481), 453–458 (1981)
J. Vitting Andersen, Estimating the level of cash invested in financial markets. Physica A 344, 168–173 (2004)
J. Vitting Andersen, Could short selling make financial markets tumble? Int. J. Theor. Appl. Financ. 8(4), 509–521 (2005)
J. Vitting Andersen, D. Sornette, The $-game. Eur. Phys. J. B 31, 141 (2003). A similar rule for updating scores was introduced in [56]
J. Vitting Andersen, D. Sornette, A mechanism for pockets of predictability in complex adaptive systems. Europhys. Lett. 70, 697 (2006)
F.A. Wang, Overconfidence, investor sentiment and evolution. J. Financ. Intermed. 10, 138–170 (2001)
P.C. Wason, D. Shapiro, Natural and contrived experience in a reasoning problem. Q. J. Exp. Psychol. 23, 63–71 (1971)
M. Weber, C.F. Camerer, The disposition effect in securities trading: an experimental analysis. J. Econ. Behav. Organ. 33, 167 (1998)
K.G. Wilson, The renormalization group: critical phenomena and the Kondo problem. Rev. Mod. Phys. 47(4), 773 (1975)
With the risk-free return equal to 0
J. Wohlmutt, J. Vitting Andersen, Modelling financial markets with agents competing on different time scales and with different amounts of information. Physica A 363, 459 (2006)
G. Ye, Inertia equity: the impact of anchoring price in brand switching (2004). SSRN-id548862
C.H. Yeung, Y.-C. Zhang, Minority games. in Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science (Springer, New York/London, 2009), pp. 5588–5604
R.B Zajonc, Feeling and thinking: preferences need no inferences. Am. Psychol. 35(2), 151 (1980)
R.M. Ziff, Phys. Rev. Lett. 69, 2670 (1992)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2013 Springer Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Andersen, J.V., Nowak, A. (2013). Communication and the Stock Market. In: An Introduction to Socio-Finance. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-41944-7_8
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-41944-7_8
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-41943-0
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-41944-7
eBook Packages: Business and EconomicsEconomics and Finance (R0)