Power Generation Capacity and its Investment Requirements in Pakistan for Twenty Years (2011–2030)
Pakistan is facing an unprecedented power crunch. Despite sufficient generating capacity, there is extreme shortage of output, and load shedding for long hours has become the norm. This paper develops a forecasting model for estimating the least possible generating capacity of electric power, required in Pakistan during the 20 years (2011–2030). The estimation is based on demographic and macroeconomic factors. Data from 1950 to 2010 has been analyzed. After developing the model, forecast has been made over the 20 years for the least possible generating capacity in mega watts (MW) which needs to be in place. The investment requirements have been identified for each of the years in the forecasted period. It may be noted that forecasting electric power demand is not the objective of this study.
KeywordsNational Transmission and Dispatch Company Limited (NTDC) Gross domestic product (GDP) Mega watts (MW) Independent power producers (IPP)
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