Advertisement

One-Shot Decision Theory: A Fundamental Alternative for Decision Under Uncertainty

  • Peijun Guo
Chapter
Part of the Studies in Computational Intelligence book series (SCI, volume 502)

Abstract

The attempts of this paper are as follows: clarifying the fundamental differences between the one-shot decision theory which was initially proposed in the paper [16] and other decision theories under uncertainty to highlight that the one-shot decision theory is a scenario-based decision theory instead of a lottery-based one; pointing out the instinct problems in other decision theories to show that the one-shot decision theory is necessary to solve one-shot decision problems; manifesting the relation between the one-shot decision theory and the probabilistic decision methods. As regret is a common psychological experience in one-shot decision making, we propose the one-shot decision methods with regret in this paper.

Keywords

Decision making One-shot decision Regret Regret focus points Scenario-based decision theory Human-centric decision-making Behavioral operations research 

References

  1. 1.
    Allais, M.: Le comportement de l’homme rationnel devant le risque: Critique des postulats et axiomes de l’école américaine. Econometrica 21(4), 503–546 (1953)Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    Baillon, A.: Eliciting subjective probabilities through exchangeable events: an advantage and a limit. Decis. Anal. 5(2), 76–87 (2008)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. 3.
    Bell, D.E.: Risk premiums for decision regret. Manag. Sci. 29(10), 1156–1166 (1983)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. 4.
    Bertrand, M., Schoar, A.: Managing with style: the effect of managers on firm policies. Q. J. Econ. 118(4), 1169–1208 (2003)CrossRefMATHGoogle Scholar
  5. 5.
    Bewley, T.: Knightian decision theory, part I. Decis. Econ. Finan. 25(2), 79–110 (2002)MathSciNetCrossRefMATHGoogle Scholar
  6. 6.
    Brandstatter, E., Gigerenzer, G., Hertwig, R.: The priority heuristic: making choices without trade-offs. Psychol. Rev. 113(2), 409–432 (2006)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. 7.
    Clemen, R.T., Kwit, R.C.: The value of decision analysis at Eastman Kodak company, 1990–1999. Interfaces 31(5), 74–92 (2001)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. 8.
    Daston, L.J.: Classical probability in the enlightenment. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ (1988)Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    Dubois, D., Prade, H., Sabbadin, R.: Decision-theoretic foundations of possibility theory. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 128(3), 459–478 (2001)MathSciNetCrossRefMATHGoogle Scholar
  10. 10.
    Ellsberg, D.: Risk, ambiguity and savage axioms. Q. J Econ. 75(4), 643–669 (1961)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. 11.
    Fine, C.H.: Clock Speed: Winning Industry Control in the Age of Temporary Advantage. Perseus Books, New York (1998)Google Scholar
  12. 12.
    Giang, P.H., Shenoy, P.: Two axiomatic approaches to decision making using possibility theory. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 162(2), 450–467 (2005)MathSciNetCrossRefMATHGoogle Scholar
  13. 13.
    Gilboa, I.: Expected utility with purely subjective nonadditive probabilities. J. Math. Econ. 16(1), 65–88 (1987)MathSciNetCrossRefMATHGoogle Scholar
  14. 14.
    Guo, P.: One-shot decision approach and its application to Duopoly market. Int. J. Inf. Decis. Sci. 2(3), 213–232 (2010a)Google Scholar
  15. 15.
    Guo, P.: Private real estate investment analysis within one-shot decision framework. Int. Real Estate Rev. 13(3), 238–260 (2010b)Google Scholar
  16. 16.
    Guo, P.: One-shot decision theory. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. Part A Syst. Hum. 41(5), 917–926 (2011)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. 17.
    Guo, P., Tanaka, H.: Decision analysis based on fused double exponential possibility distributions. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 148(3), 467–479 (2003)MathSciNetCrossRefMATHGoogle Scholar
  18. 18.
    Guo, P., Yan, R., Wang, J.: Duopoly market analysis within one-shot decision framework with asymmetric possibilistic information. J. Comput. Intell. Syst. 3(6), 786–796 (2010)Google Scholar
  19. 19.
    Kaha, B.E., Sarin, R.K.: Modelling ambiguity in decision under uncertainty. J. Consum. Res. 15(2), 265–272 (1988)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. 20.
    Kahneman, D., Tversky, A.: Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 47(2), 263–291 (1979)CrossRefMATHGoogle Scholar
  21. 21.
    Kahneman, D., Tversky, A. (eds.): Choices, Values, and Frames. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2000)Google Scholar
  22. 22.
    Katsikopoulos, K.V., Gigerenzer, G.: One-reason decision-making: modeling violations of expected utility theory. J. Risk Uncertainty 37(1), 35–56 (2008)CrossRefMATHGoogle Scholar
  23. 23.
    King, W.R.: Offshoring decision time is at hand. Inf. Syst. Manag. 23(1), 102–103 (2006)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. 24.
    Knight, F.H.: Risk. Uncertainty and Profit. Houghton Mifflin, Boston (1921)Google Scholar
  25. 25.
    List, J.A., Mason, C.F.: Are CEOs expected utility maximizers? J. Econometrics 162(1), 114–123 (2011)MathSciNetCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. 26.
    Loomes, G., Sugden, R.: Regret theory: an alternative theory of rational choice under uncertainty. Econ. J. 92(368), 805–824 (1982)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. 27.
    Savage, L.J.: The Foundations of Statistics. Wiley, New York (1954)MATHGoogle Scholar
  28. 28.
    Schmeidler, D.: Subjective probability and expected utility without additivity. Econometrica 57(3), 571–587 (1989)MathSciNetCrossRefMATHGoogle Scholar
  29. 29.
    Segal, U.: The Ellsberg paradox and risk aversion: an anticipated utility approach. Int. Econ. Rev. 28(1), 175–202 (1987)CrossRefMATHGoogle Scholar
  30. 30.
    Shafer, G.: Savage revisited. Stat. Sci. 1(4), 463–501 (1986)MathSciNetCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. 31.
    Shimanoff, S.B.: Commonly named emotions in everyday conversations. Percept. Mot. Skills 58(2), 514 (1984)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. 32.
    Sugden, R.: Regret, recrimination and rationality. Theor. Decis. 19(1), 77–99 (1985)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. 33.
    Von Neumann, J., Morgenstern, O.: Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton University Press, Princeton (1944)Google Scholar
  34. 34.
    Whalen, T.: Decision making under uncertainty with various assumptions about available information. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. 14(6), 888–900 (1984)MathSciNetCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. 35.
    Yager, R.R.: Possibilistic decision making. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. 9, 388–392 (1979)MathSciNetCrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Faculty of Business AdministrationYokohama National UniversityHodogaya-kuJapan

Personalised recommendations