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The Marketcast Method for Aggregating Prediction Market Forecasts

  • Pavel Atanasov
  • Phillip Rescober
  • Eric Stone
  • Emile Servan-Schreiber
  • Barbara Mellers
  • Philip Tetlock
  • Lyle Ungar
Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 7812)

Abstract

We describe a hybrid forecasting method called marketcast. Marketcasts are based on bid and ask orders from prediction markets, aggregated using techniques associated with survey methods, rather than market matching algorithms. We discuss the process of conversion from market orders to probability estimates, and simple aggregation methods. The performance of marketcasts is compared to a traditional prediction market and a traditional opinion poll. Overall, marketcasts perform approximately as well as prediction markets and opinion poll methods on most questions, and performance is stable across model specifications.

Keywords

Forecasting Prediction Markets Aggregation 

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Pavel Atanasov
    • 1
  • Phillip Rescober
    • 1
  • Eric Stone
    • 1
  • Emile Servan-Schreiber
    • 2
  • Barbara Mellers
    • 1
  • Philip Tetlock
    • 1
  • Lyle Ungar
    • 1
  1. 1.University of PennsylvaniaPhiladelphiaUSA
  2. 2.LumenogicParisFrance

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