A Method to Estimate the Accumulated Delivery Time Uncertainty in Supply Networks
Today, value creation within the manufacturing industry is realised in supply networks. A supply network is considered as a collaboration of suppliers and a manufacture (Original Equipment Manufacturer-OEM) to reach a common objective. Firms can now decide which parts of the supply network they will manage directly and which they will be out-source activities. One of the supply network’s features is outsourcing, and it makes a new source of uncertainty. This uncertainty has an impact on supply network performance. Nowadays, researchers have recognised the importance of analysing the delivery time uncertainty in supply networks. Delivery time uncertainty in the OEM, results from the accumulation of individual uncertainties of the suppliers in the network. The supply networks consist of the combination of basic types of network such as linear, star, tree, etc. The types of network have an essential impact on the accumulation of the individual uncertainties. In this paper, a method to calculate the accumulation of the individual uncertainties based on the network type is presented. Finally, an example is given to show the application of this method to the all types of supply network with four nodes.
KeywordsSupply network Delivery time uncertainty Network type Probability density function
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