A Quantum Model for the Ellsberg and Machina Paradoxes
- Cite this paper as:
- Aerts D., Sozzo S., Tapia J. (2012) A Quantum Model for the Ellsberg and Machina Paradoxes. In: Busemeyer J.R., Dubois F., Lambert-Mogiliansky A., Melucci M. (eds) Quantum Interaction. QI 2012. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 7620. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
The Ellsberg and Machina paradoxes reveal that expected utility theory is problematical when real subjects take decisions under uncertainty. Suitable generalizations of expected utility exist which attempt to solve the Ellsberg paradox, but none of them provides a satisfactory solution of the Machina paradox. In this paper we elaborate a quantum model in Hilbert space describing the Ellsberg situation and also the Machina situation, and show that we can model the specific aspect of the Machina situation that is unable to be modeled within the existing generalizations of expected utility.
KeywordsEllsberg paradox Machina paradox ambiguity aversion quantum modeling
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