Modeling on Sensitivity of Influential Factors to City Water Demand Based on System Dynamic Mechanics Method
To study the sensitivity of the influential factors to city water demand, thus promoting the construction of water-saving society. The paper gives a preliminary qualitative analysis by applying system dynamic mechanics method and gray relational analysis in city water demand, followed by the default factor analysis and principal component analysis further authentication. The results showed that: city population and GDP per capita are more sensitive than any other factors to the city water demand; results of system dynamic mechanics method and gray relational analysis method is basically same as principal component analysis model based on the default factor method; the six factors have multi-co linearity on city water demand, the city water demand prediction model based on principal component regression method can make variable reasonable, in line with the objective interpretation of the actual physical cause. This provides a new thinking and methods for government developing water-saving policy and water resources planning.
KeywordsSystem dynamic mechanics City water demand Sensitive factor Gray relational analysis Principal component analysis
This research work was supported by Xinjiang Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Key Discipline Funding (award number. XJZDXK2002-10-05) and Xinjiang Hydrology Water Resources Key Discipline Funding (award number.XJSWSZYZDXK2010-12-02). We give the most heartfelt thanks to the reviewers for their great contributions on the early manuscript. We are also grateful to the editor who has helped improve the present paper with their most appropriate suggestions.
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