Abstract
This study examines the integration of the Delphi method with technology roadmapping as a new technology foresight process. The Delphi method and technology roadmapping have developed in different ways, and these two foresight methods are now attracting attention from both national governments and private companies. However, each method also has limitations when attempting to deal with accelerating technological complexity and sophistication and latent markets. This study reviews the merits and demerits of the Delphi method and technology roadmapping, and proposes a new method of technology foresight, which takes advantage of the strengths of both methods.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
AIRI/Nanotec IT, Roadmaps at 2015 on nanotechnology application in the sectors of materials, health & medical systems, energy. Synthesis report, EU Nanoroadmap Project, EC 6th Framework Programme. VDI/VDE Innovation und Technik GmbH, Berlin (2006)
Banuls, V.A., Salmeron, J.L.: A scenario-based assessment model - SBAM. Technological Forecast and Social Change 74(6), 750–762 (2007)
Caldwell, B., Wang, E., Ghosh, S., Kim, C., Rayalu, R.: Forecasting multiple generations of technology evolution: challenges and possible solutions. International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning 1(2), 131–149 (2005)
Chesbrough, H.W.: Open Innovation: The New Imperative for Creating and Profiting from Technology. Harvard Business School Press, Cambridge (2003)
Eto, H.: The suitability of technology forecasting/foresight methods for decision systems and strategy – a Japanese view. Technological Forecast and Social Change 70(3), 231–249 (2003)
Goto, A., Kodama, T.: Japan’s National Innovation System: Rebuilding the Engine of Growth. University of Tokyo Press, Tokyo (2006)
Goto, A., Odagiri, H.: The Industrial Systems in Japan and New Developments 3 - Science-based Industries. NTT Publishing Co., Ltd., Tokyo (2003)
Kameoka, A., Yokoo, Y., Kuwahara, T.: A challenge of integrating technology foresight and assessment in industrial strategy development and policymaking. Technological Forecast and Social Change 71(6), 579–598 (2004)
Kanama, D.: EU Nanoroadmap - issues and outlook for technological roadmaps in the nanotechnology field. Science and Technology Trends (23), 55–64 (2007)
Karube, I.: Integration of socio-economic needs into technology foresight. In: Proceedings of the International Conference on Technology Foresight, Report Material No. 77 (2001)
Kondo, M.: University-industry partnerships in Japan. In: Nagaoka, S., Kondo, M., Flamm, K., Wessner, C. (eds.) 21st Century Innovation Systems for Japan and the United States: Lessons from a Decade of Change: Report of a Symposium, pp. 186–205. The national academies press, Washington, DC (2009)
Kuwahara, T.: Technology forecasting activities in Japan. Technological Forecast and Social Change 60(1), 5–14 (1999)
Kuwahara, T.: Technology foresight in Japan - the potential and implications of the Delphi approach. In: Proceedings of the International Conference on Technology Foresight, Report Material No. 77 (2001)
Landeta, J.: Current validity of the Delphi method in social science. Technological Forecast and Social Change 73(5), 467–482 (2006)
Martin, B.: Technology foresight in a rapidly globalising economy. A Paper Prepared for The UNIDO Regional Conference on Technology Foresight for Central and Eastern Europe and the Newly Independent States, UNIDO, Vienna (2001)
Martin, R.: Technology roadmaps: infrastructure for innovation. Technological Forecast and Social Change 71(1), 67–80 (2004)
NISTEP, Outlook for Japanese and German Future Technology - Comparing Japanese and German Technology Forecast Survey. NISTEP Report No. 33. National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, Tokyo (1994)
NISTEP, The Seventh Technology Foresight - Future Technology in Japan Towards the Year, NISTEP Report No. 71. National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, Tokyo (2001)
NISTEP, The 8th Science and Technology Foresight Survey - Delphi Analysis. NISTEP Report No. 97. National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, Tokyo (2005a)
NISTEP, Comprehensive Analysis of Science and Technology Benchmarking and Foresight. NISTEP Report No. 99. National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, Tokyo (2005b)
NISTEP, Social Vision Towards, - Scenario Discussion based on Science and technology Foresight. NISTEP Report No. 101. National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, Tokyo (2007)
NISTEP, The 9th Science and Technology Foresight - Contribution of Science and Technology to Future Society - Future Scenarios Opened up by Science and Technology. NISTEP Report No. 141. National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, Tokyo (2010a)
NISTEP, The 9th Science and Technology Foresight - Contribution of Science and Technology to Future Society - The 9th Delphi Survey. NISTEP Report No. 140. National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, Tokyo (2010b)
Petrick, I.J., Provance, M.: Roadmapping as a mitigator of uncertainty in strategic technology choice. International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning 1(2), 171–184 (2005)
Phaal, R., Farrukh, C.J.P., Probert, D.R.: Technology roadmapping - a planning framework for evolution and revolution. Technological Forecast and Social Change 71(1), 5–26 (2004)
Phaal, R., Farrukh, C.J.P., Probert, D.R.: Developing a technology roadmapping system. In: Proceedings of PICMET 2005, pp. 99–111 (2005)
Preez, G.T.D., Pistorious, C.W.I.: Technological threat and opportunity assessment. Technological Forecast and Social Change 61(3), 215–234 (1999)
Rip, A., Misa, T.J., Schot, J.: Constructive technology assessment: a new paradigm for managing technology in society. In: Rip, A., Misa, T.J., Schot, J. (eds.) Managing Technology in Society: The Approach of Constructive Technology Assessment, pp. 1–14. Pinter Publishers, London (1995)
Stokes, D.E.: Pasteur’s Quadrant: Basic Science and Technological Innovation. Brookings Institution Press, Washington, DC (1997)
UNIDO, UNIDO Technology Foresight Manual, vol. 1. United Nations Industrial Development Organization, Vienna (2005)
Willem, van den Wildenberg: Roadmaps at 2015 on nanotechnology application in the sectors of materials, health & medical systems, energy: Roadmap Report on Nanoparticles. EU Nanoroadmap Project, EC 6th Framework Programme (2005)
Willyard, C.H., McClees, C.W.: Motorola’s technology roadmap process. Research Management 30(5), 13–19 (1987)
Wilsdon, J., Willis, R.: See-through Science: Why Public Engagement Needs to Move Upstream. Demos, London (2004)
Wounderberg, F.: An evaluation of Delphi. Technological Forecast and Social Change 40(2), 131–150 (1991)
Yasunaga, Y., Yoon, T.: Technology Roadmaps: Creation of New Industries through Overviews and Analysis of Technological Knowledge. Open Knowledge Corporation, Tokyo (2006) (in Japanese)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Kanama, D. (2013). Development of Technology Foresight: Integration of Technology Roadmapping and the Delphi Method. In: Moehrle, M., Isenmann, R., Phaal, R. (eds) Technology Roadmapping for Strategy and Innovation. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-33923-3_10
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-33923-3_10
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-33922-6
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-33923-3
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)