Sentiment Proxies: Computing Market Volatility

  • Stephen Kelly
  • Khurshid Ahmad
Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 7435)


Macroeconomic announcements can have an influential effect on the price, and related volatility, of an object traded in financial markets. Modeling the impact of a relevant announcement on a specific commodity is of interest in building financial models of such objects. The announcements may generate false hopes or correctly indicate the ways in which the prices of objects may change. We describe a bootstrap model which is an attempt to analyse the impact of a publicly released oil inventory announcement on the price of oil futures contracts. A comparison with traditional econometric regression model is presented and we perturb the traditional models with: (a) a dummy time series that contains the dates on which the announcement is made, and (b) a sentiment time series that reflects the sentiment of the market. The sentiment time series is generated using natural language processing techniques.


Price Change Sentiment Analysis Future Contract Foreign Exchange Market Price Return 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Stephen Kelly
    • 1
  • Khurshid Ahmad
    • 1
  1. 1.Trinity College DublinIreland

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