Handling Seismic Anomalies in Multiple Segment Prospects with Graphical Models
Bayesian Risk Modification (BRM)  is a standard statistical framework for de-risking exploration targets using seismic anomalies. When an anomaly is observed it translates exploration team assumptions into an increase or decrease in the Chance of Success (COS). A unique advantage of the Bayesian approach is that it provides a statistical framework for assessing COS along with resources generated by prospects with multiple targets with seismic anomalies (see ).This paper presents a new prospect-level BRM approach by introducing a parameter that captures the degree of dependence among seismic anomalies on targets in a prospect. We compare this new BRM approach with the classical risking framework. BRM fits well into any graphical model risking framework such as those presented in  and . This allows straightforward Monte Carlo simulation of our risking procedure.
KeywordsGraphical Model Petroleum System Failure Scenario Conditional Probability Table Exploration Target
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