Abstract
This chapter looks at the integration of a population-employment interaction model in the TIGRIS XL framework. TIGRIS XL model is an integrated land-use and transport model and is actually a system of sub-models (or modules) that allows for dynamic interaction between them. Currently, the population module responses to lagged changes in employment and the employment module responses to contemporaneous changes in population. Thus, the change in population mainly drives the change in employment—an assumption which, given the strict Dutch restrictions on population location, is not entirely unrealistic. We, however, argue that this assumption is too harsh, and that sectoral employment change might be more dependent upon employment change in other sectors than on population change. We, therefore, test and estimate such relations and conclude indeed that for some sectors the employment dynamics in other sectors are more important than population changes and propose an adapted version of the labour module in TIGRIS XL. The new methodology within TIGRIS XL is assessed by looking at a (stylized) case study. This study concerned the doubling of the size of the new town Almere located 20 km east of Amsterdam. About 60,000 dwellings are to be built and 100,000 jobs are to be added in the period up to 2030. The accessibility benefits of a particular land use planning variant, with a tailored public transport investment alternative, are examined for the new labour module in TIGRIS XL. Both models predict, in case of the construction of 60,000 dwellings, a number of additional jobs much lower than 100,000. The model results of the new module shows that the population-employment interaction model reacts slower and on shorter distances on population changes than the old model. Thus, employment does not seem to mold that easily to population changes as earlier Dutch employment models have predicted.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
They label such endogeneity between employment in different sectors as: “Jobs follow jobs”.
- 2.
An acronym for the Dutch phrase “Werkgelegenheid En BEroepsbevolking Ramingen”.
- 3.
Hence, the commonly used name ‘Carlino-Mills’ studies for this literature.
- 4.
As a matter of fact, this approach fills in the complete matrix I + W and not only W, because data is available for intra-municipality traffic as well.
- 5.
We estimate the parameters using the Dutch Mobility Research database (MON) where \( \alpha \), \( \beta \) and \( \gamma \) are 0.0155, 0.1073 and 1.9038 for car mobility and 0.0002, −5.2408 and 3.1459 for public transport mobility. This results in a rather steep distance-decay function.
- 6.
There is some debate about this approach. Ideally, one would use all parameters (regardless of their significance level) and then performance a scenario analysis with an associated confidence interval. The latter can be obtained by, e.g., bootstrap techniques. Confidence intervals for the scenario analysis can then be obtained by using a large number of draws from a multivariate normal distribution centered on the estimated parameters and taking into account the estimated variances and covariances.
References
Amsterdambrief (2011) Economic development perspectives for the northwing of the Randstad. Ministry of Economic Affairs (in Dutch), The Hague
Boarnet MC (1994a) An empirical model of intrametropolitan population and employment growth. Pap Reg Sci 73:135–152
Boarnet MC (1994b) The monocentric model and employment location. J Urban Econ 36:79–97
Boarnet MC, Chalermpong S, Geho E (2005) Specification issues in models of population and employment growth. Pap Reg Sci 84:21–46
Bruinsma F, Florax RJGM, van Oort F, Sorber M (2002) Wonen en werken: wringen binnen rode contouren. Economische Statistische Berichten 87:384–387
RAND Europe and Bureau Louter (2006) Systeem documentatie tigris xl 1.0. prepared for the Transport Research Centre, Leiden, The Netherlands
Carlino GA, Mills ES (1987) The determinants of country growth. J Reg Sci 27:39–54
Carruthers JI, Mulligan GF (2007) Land absorption in US metropolitan areas: estimates and projections from regional adjustment models. Geogr Anal 39:78–104
Carruthers JI, Mulligan GF (2008) A locational analysis of growth and change in American metropolitan areas. Pap Reg Sci 87:155–171
Carruthers JI, Vias AC (2005) Urban, suburban, and exurban sprawl in the Rocky Mountain West: evidence from regional adjustment models. J Reg Sci 45:21–48
CPB (2009) Cost-benefit analysis of urbanisation and public transport alternatives for Almere, Netherlands bureau for economic policy analysis (CPB; in Dutch), The Hague
de Bok M (2007) Infrastructure and firm dynamics: a micro-simulation approach. T2007/5, trail thesis series, Delft, The Netherlands
Echenique MH, Hargreaves AJ (2004) Cambridge futures 2: what transport for Cambridge. The Martin Centre, University of Cambridge, Cambridge
Hoogstra GJ, Florax RJGM, van Dijk J (2003) Specification issues and sample selection in population-employment interaction models. working paper, Universiteit Groningen
Hoogstra GJ, Florax RJGM, van Dijk J (2005) Do‘jobs follow people’ or‘people follow jobs’? a meta-analysis of carlino-mills studies. Working paper, Universiteit Groningen
Hoogstra GJ, van Dijk J, Florax RJGM (2011) Determinants of variation in population-employment interaction findings: a quasi-experimental meta-analysis. Geogr Anal 43:14–37
Kelejian HH, Prucha IR (1998) A generalized spatial two-stage least squares procedure for estimating a spatial autoregressive model with autoregressive disturbances. J Real Estate Financ Econ 17:99–121
Kelejian HH, Prucha IR (2004) Estimation of simultaneous systems of spatially interrelated cross sectional equations. J Econometrics 118:27–50
Mills ES (1967) An aggregative model of resource allocation in a metropolitan area. Am Econ Rev 57:197–210
Moeckel R (2005) Microsimulation of firm location decisions. Proceedings of the 9th CUPUM conference, London
Mulligan GF, Vias AC, Glavac SM (1999) Initial diagnostics of a regional adjustment model. Environ Plann A 31:855–876
Muth RF (1969) Cities and housing. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago
PBL (2007) Adolescent almere. how a city is made. NAi Uitgevers/Ruimtelijk Planbureau, Rotterdam/Den Haag
PBL (2011) Nederland in 2040: een land van regio’s. Ruimtelijke Verkenning 2011. Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving, Den Haag
PBL (2008) Woon-werkdynamiek in Nederlandse gemeenten. NAi Uitgevers/Ruimtelijk Planbureau, Rotterdam/Den Haag
Simmonds DC (1999) The design of the DELTA land-use modelling package. Environ Plann B 26:665–684
Steinnes DN (1977) ’Do people follow jobs’ or’do jobs follow people’? A causality issue in urban economics. J Urban Econ 4:69–79
Steinnes DN, Fischer WD (1974) An econometric model of intraurban location. J Reg Sci 14:65–80
Thompson WR (1968) Internal and external factors in the development of urban economies. In: Perloff HS, Wingo L Jr (eds) Issues in urban economies. John Hopkins Press, Baltimore, pp 43–62, chapter 4
Thurston L, Yezer AMJ (1994) Causality in the suburbanization of population and employment. J Urban Econ 35:105–118
van den Burg A (2004) Ruimtelijk beleid in nederland op nationaal niveau, Geordend Landschap. 3000 jaar ruimtelijke ordening in Nederland, Verloren, chapter van Heeringen RM, Cordfunke EHP, Ilsink M, Sarfatij H, p 159–176
Vermeulen W, Rouwendal J (2007) Housing supply and land use regulation in the Netherlands. tinbergen institute discussion paper, TI 2007-058/3, Amsterdam
Vermeulen W, van Ommeren J (2009) Does land use planning shape regional economies? A simultaneous analysis of housing supply, internal migration and local employment growth in the Netherlands. J Hous Econ 18:294–310
Waddell P (2001) Between politics and planning:urbansim as a decision support system for metropolitan planning, in building urban planning support systems. Center for Urban Policy Research, The State University of New Jersey, New Jersey
Wegener M (1998a) The IRPUD model: labour market submodel. Website of the Institute of Spatial Planning, University of Dortmund
Wegener M (1998b) The IRPUD model: overview. Website of the Institute of Spatial Planning, University of Dortmund
Zondag B (2007) Joint modeling of land-use, transport and the economy. T2007/4, Trail Thesis series, Delft, The Netherlands
Acknowledgements
This research was done at the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. We would like thank Michiel de Bok, Raymond J.G.M. Florax and Frank van Oort for useful comments and remarks. Finally, the authors would like to particularly thank Significance for calculating some of the scenario analyses. The usual disclaimer applies.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
de Graaff, T., Zondag, B. (2013). A Population-Employment Interaction Model as Labour Module in TIGRIS XL. In: Pagliara, F., de Bok, M., Simmonds, D., Wilson, A. (eds) Employment Location in Cities and Regions. Advances in Spatial Science. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31779-8_4
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31779-8_4
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-31778-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-31779-8
eBook Packages: Business and EconomicsEconomics and Finance (R0)