Abstract
This paper describes and illustrates the approach to land-use/transport/economic interaction modeling that the authors and colleagues have implemented as the DELTA software package and have used to forecast and appraise the employment and economic impacts of a range of proposed or possible transport strategies and schemes under consideration in different parts of the United Kingdom. It first describes the background to the development of the approach. Secondly it outlines the models developed within this approach, focusing in particular on the two-level representation of space and on the links between transport and the economy. The workings of the model in practice are then illustrated with some example forecasts from one major study. We then outline the current approach to appraisal of wider economic impacts, and discuss the appraisal results corresponding with the example results. The final section discusses some current developments.
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Notes
- 1.
Note that unless otherwise stated, “employment” results are always employment by workplace. The numbers of persons in work could also be tabulated by their place of residence if required, for example in order to examine impacts on areas of social deprivation.
- 2.
More precisely, the DfT methodology identifies the extra benefit as the additional direct taxes paid by people who would be brought into work as a result of the transport improvement; it assumes that the net benefit to those people is captured as part of the conventional consumer surplus measure in the transport economic efficiency calculations. This will not always be the case: in many models the constraints within the transport model will not allow the labour supply response that would produce that element of consumer surplus. In that case the whole increase in GDP resulting from the additional employment should be counted, rather than just the tax component.
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Simmonds, D., Feldman, O. (2013). Modelling the Economic Impacts of Transport Changes: Experience and Issues. In: Pagliara, F., de Bok, M., Simmonds, D., Wilson, A. (eds) Employment Location in Cities and Regions. Advances in Spatial Science. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31779-8_3
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