A Bayesian Network Based Critical Infrastructure Risk Model

  • Thomas Schaberreiter
  • Pascal Bouvry
  • Juha Röning
  • Djamel Khadraoui
Part of the Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing book series (AISC, volume 175)


Critical infrastructures (CIs) provide important services to society and economy, like electricity, or communication networks to enable telephone calls and internet access. CI services are expected to provide safety and security features like data Confidentiality and Integrity as well as to ensure service Availability (CIA). The complexity and interdependency of CI services makes it hard for CI providers to guarantee those features or even to be able to monitor the CIA risk by taking into account that an incident in one CI service can cascade to another CI service due to a dependency.

CI security modelling tries to address some of the problems by providing a model for on-line risk monitoring. The model displays risk on the CI service level and can capture the dependencies to other CI services and include them in risk estimation. In this work Bayesian networks (BNs) are introduced to the CI security model to provide a method to derive CI service risk and allow features like risk prediction and handling of interdependencies. To the best of our knowledge this is the first time that BNs are used for on-line risk estimation in CIs.


Bayesian Network Parent Node Critical Infrastructure Dynamic Bayesian Network Directed Cycle 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Thomas Schaberreiter
    • 1
  • Pascal Bouvry
    • 2
  • Juha Röning
    • 3
  • Djamel Khadraoui
    • 1
  1. 1.Service Science & Innovation (SSI)Centre de Recherche Public Henri TudorLuxembourgLuxembourg
  2. 2.Computer Science and Communications Research UnitUniversity of LuxembourgLuxembourgLuxembourg
  3. 3.Department of Electrical and Information EngineeringUniversity of OuluOuluFinland

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