Abstract
In this work we present a regional scale warning system (named SIGMA) for rainfall induced landslides. The system combines rain gauges measurements and rainfall forecasts and compares them with a series of statistical rainfall thresholds based on the total amount of rainfall. The system was specifically built to take into account both shallow and deep seated landslides. A decisional algorithm integrated in the warning system automatically provides a criticality level depending on which thresholds are exceeded. The model was integrated in the regional warning system of the Emilia Romagna region (Italy) for civil protection purposes. This paper accounts also for the main modifications that the model had during its development, passing form a base version relying on thresholds defined by means of a statistical analysis on rainfall data, to an advanced version in which thresholds were calibrated using a landslide database. The passage from a system to another was straightforward and for its flexibility and versatility, the proposed methodology seems particularly appropriate for emerging countries that have not yet gathered extensive and complete information on the location and time of occurrence of landslides.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Aleotti P (2004) A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures. Eng Geol 73:247–265
Benedetti A, Casagli N, Bosi V, Dapporto S, Ciolli S, Palmieri M, Zinoni F (2005) Modello statistico per la previsione operativa dei fenomeni franosi nella regione Emilia-Romagna. Boll Soc Geol Italy 124:333–344
Bertolini G, Pellegrini M (2001) The landslides of the Emilia Apennines (Northern Italy) with reference to those which resumed activity in the 1994–1999 period and required Civil Protection interventions. Quaderni Geolo Appl 8(1):27–74
Bianchi F, Catani F (2002) Landscape dynamics risk management in Northern Apennines (Italy). Environ Stud 7:319–328
Bonnard CH, Noverraz F (2001) Influence of climate change on large landslides: assessment of long term movements and trends. In: Proceedings of the international conference on landslides causes impact and countermeasures. Gluckauf, Essen/Davos, pp 121–138
Caine N (1980) The rainfall intensity–duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows. Geogr Ann A 62:23–27
Campbell RH (1974) Debris flows originating from soil slips during rainstorms in Southern California. Quart J Eng Geol 7:339–349
Cardinali M, Galli M, Guzzetti F, Ardizzone F, Reichenbach P, Bartoccini P (2006) Rainfall induced landslides in December 2004 in Southwestern Umbria, Central Italy. Nat Hazard Earth Sys Sci 6:237–260
Crosta GB (1998) Regionalization of rainfall thresholds: an aid to landslide hazard evaluation. Environ Geol 35(2–3):131–145
Goovaerts P (1997) Geostatistics for natural resources evaluation. Oxford University Press, New York
Guzzetti F, Peruccacci S, Rossi M, Stark CP (2008) The rainfallintensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows: an update. Landslides 5(1):3–17. doi:10.1007/s10346-007-0112-1
Hong Y, Hiura H, Shino K, Sassa K, Suemine A, Fukuoka H, Wang G (2005) The influence of intense rainfall on the activity of large-scale crystalline schist landslides in Shikoku Island, Japan. Landslides 2(2):97–105
Innes JL (1983) Debris flows. Prog Phys Geog 7:469–501
Martelloni G, Segoni S, Catani F, Fanti R (WLF2-2011-0392) Snow melt modelling for improving the forecasts of rainfall threshold-based landslide triggering
Martelloni G, Segoni S, Fanti R, Catani F (under review) Rainfall thresholds for the forecasting of landslide occurrence at regional scale. Landslides
Rosi A, Segoni S, Catani F, Casagli N. Statistical and environmental analyses for the definition of a regional rainfall thresholds system for landslide triggering in Tuscany (Italy). J Geogr Sci (in press)
Terlien MTJ (1998) The determination of statistical and deterministic hydrological landslide-triggering thresholds. Environ Geol 35:125–130
Vai GB, Martini IP (2001) Anatomy of an Orogen: the Apennines and adjacents Mediterranean basins. Kluwer, Dordrecht/Boston/London, 636pp
Wieczorek GF (1996) Landslide triggering mechanism. In: Turner AK, Schuster RL (eds) Landslides investigation and mitigation, Special Report 247(4):76–89, Transportation Research Board. National Academy Press, Washington, DC
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Segoni, S., Martelloni, G., Lagomarsino, D., Fanti, R., Catani, F. (2013). An Operational Warning System for the Forecasting of Landslide Occurrence at Regional Scale. In: Margottini, C., Canuti, P., Sassa, K. (eds) Landslide Science and Practice. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31445-2_80
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31445-2_80
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-31444-5
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-31445-2
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)