Advertisement

Dynamic Business Model Analysis for Strategic Foresight in Production Networks

  • Hans-Christian HaagEmail author
  • Meike Tilebein
Conference paper
Part of the Lecture Notes in Production Engineering book series (LNPE)

Abstract

In today’s uncertain business environments, many small and medium-sized firms organize their production resources and processes within networks. As a consequence, these firms are increasingly connected through a complex and dynamic pattern of inter-organizational flows of material and information. Within such networks, approaches focusing on a single firm’s perspective are inadequate strategic foresight. However, approaches, that explicitly consider the network perspective to enhance single firm perspectives, help firms to align flexibility with uncertainty to achieve greater robustness of their strategies. This chapter combines the introduction of a methodological approach with the practical experience from the application within a research project consisting of different application partners. Thereby, it shows an unconventional way of applying system dynamics within a strategic foresight approach in production networks. By demonstrating the application of the approach within an illustrative example, important modeling steps are shown and crucial tasks are evaluated.

Keywords

Strategic foresight System dynamics Network modeling Scenario development 

Notes

Acknowledgments

This research is supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) within the framework “Research for the Production of Tomorrow” and coordinated by the Project Management Agency Karlsruhe (PTKA) from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology.

References

  1. 1.
    Duncan, R.B.: Characteristics of organizational environments and perceived environmental uncertainty. ASQ 17, 313–327 (1972)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. 2.
    Ansoff, H.I.: Managing strategic surprise by response to weak signals. CMR 18, 21–33 (1975)Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Frishammar, J.: Characteristics in information processing approaches. IJIM 22, 143–156 (2002)Google Scholar
  4. 4.
    Tsoukas, H., Shepherd, J.: Coping with the future: developing organizational foresightfulness. Futures 36, 137–144 (2004)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. 5.
    Horton, A.: A simple guide to successful foresight. Foresight 1, 5–9 (1999)Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    Slaughter, R.A.: Futures studies as an intellectual and applied discipline. ABS 42, 372–385 (1998)Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    Jarillo, C.J.: On strategic networks. SMJ 9, 31–41 (1988)Google Scholar
  8. 8.
    Jarillo, C.J.: Strategic Networks, Creating the Borderless Organization. Butterworth-Heinemann, Oxford (1993)Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    Teece, D.J., Pisano, G., Shuen, A.: Dynamic capabilities and strategic management. SMJ 18, 509–533 (1997)Google Scholar
  10. 10.
    Zheng, L., Possel-Dölken, F.: Cooperation between production companies. In: Zheng, L., Possel-Dölken, F. (eds.) Strategic Production Networks, pp. 7–44. Springer, Berlin (2002)Google Scholar
  11. 11.
    Haag, H.-C., Tilebein, M.: Strategic foresight in production networks—a structured approach. In: Proceedings of the International Conference on Production Research (ICPR) (2011)Google Scholar
  12. 12.
    Rohrbeck, R., Gemünden, H.G.: Corporate foresight: its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 78, 231–243 (2011)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. 13.
    Blackman, D.A., Henderson, S.: How foresight creates unforeseen futures: the role of doubting. Futures 36, 253–266 (2004)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. 14.
    Vecchiato, R.: Environmental uncertainty, foresight and strategic decision making: an integrated study. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 79, 436–447 (2012)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. 15.
    Voros, J.: A generic foresight process framework. Foresight 5, 10–21 (2003)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. 16.
    Johnson, G., Scholes, K.: Exploring Corporate Strategy. Prentice Hall Europe, London (2000)Google Scholar
  17. 17.
    Johnson, M.W., Christensen, C.M., Kagermann, H.: Reinventing your business model. HBR, 78–93 (2008)Google Scholar
  18. 18.
    Sterman, J.D.: Business Dynamics, Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin/McGraw-Hill, Boston (2000)Google Scholar
  19. 19.
    Vennix, J.A.: Group Model Building: Facilitating Team Learning Using System Dynamics. Wiley, Chichester (1996)Google Scholar
  20. 20.
    van Heijden, K.D.: Scenarios, The Art of Strategic Conversation. Wiley, Chichester (2007)Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.University of Stuttgart, Institute for Diversity Studies in EngineeringStuttgartGermany

Personalised recommendations