Probabilistic Weather Forecasting
Weather forecasts are approaching the physical limits of predictability. A prediction of a cyclone more than a week in advance, or a thunderstorm a few hours ahead, will have a large degree of uncertainty. New techniques using ensembles of forecasts to predict probabilities of weather events are being developed to increase the skill of weather forecasting and the value of forecasts to users when exact predictions are impossible.
KeywordsEnsemble Member Ensemble Forecast Probabilistic Forecast Numerical Weather Prediction Model Precipitation Forecast
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