Graphical Models as Surrogates for Complex Ground Motion Models

  • Kristin Vogel
  • Carsten Riggelsen
  • Nicolas Kuehn
  • Frank Scherbaum
Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 7268)


In Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis, which has become the basis of decision making on the design of high risk facilities, one estimates the probability that ground motion caused by earthquakes exceeds a certain level at a certain site within a certain time interval. One of the most critical aspects in this context is the model for the conditional probability of ground motion given earthquake magnitude, source-site-distance and potentially additional parameters. These models are usually regression functions, including terms modelling interaction effects derived from expert knowledge. We show that the framework of Directed Graphical Models is an attractive alternative to the standard regression approach. We investigate Bayesian Networks, modelling the problem in a true multivariate way, and we look into Naive Bayes and Tree-Augmented Naive Bayes, where the target node coincides with the dependent variable in standard ground motion regression. Our approach gives rise to distribution-free learning when necessary, and we experiment with and introduce different discretization schemes to apply standard learning and inference algorithms to our problem at hand.


Ground Motion Bayesian Network Directed Acyclic Graph Minimum Description Length Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Kristin Vogel
    • 1
  • Carsten Riggelsen
    • 1
  • Nicolas Kuehn
    • 1
  • Frank Scherbaum
    • 1
  1. 1.Institute of Earth and Environmental ScienceUniversity of PotsdamGolm-PotsdamGermany

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