Relationship of South-Eastern Europe Winter Precipitation with North Atlantic SST
As the North Atlantic region shows variations that influence the regional climate, this study aims to investigate the relationship between the North Atlantic SST and the winter precipitation of south-eastern Europe and, furthermore, explore whether this relationship has changed in the past. Such change may be of significant importance for understanding the impacts of global warming on regional climate. The data used involve observational precipitation of 54 stations for 1958–2000 provided by the ECA&D database and the STARDEX EU Project, together with the NOAA Extended Reconstruction SST with 2.0° × 2.0° resolution. The study focuses on interannual variations and a harmonic analysis is applied to the time series to exclude possible contamination of interannual relationship by interdecadal changes. The EOF analysis on winter precipitation data shows that the first EOF explains about 44% of interannual variability and indicates a uniform behaviour over the whole examined area. This EOF is highly correlated with the tropical North Atlantic SST anomalies with a time lag reaching up to two seasons. Moreover, the correlation between winter precipitation and tropical North Atlantic SST seems to weaken from mid-1970s to mid-1980s, and the possible reasons for that change need to be further investigated.
KeywordsEmpirical Orthogonal Function Winter Precipitation Balkan Peninsula North Atlantic Storm Track Interannual Relationship
This work was realized during the visit of Dr. Hatzaki at the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), MD, USA, which support is greatly acknowledged.
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