Analysis of the Effect of Climate Change on the Yield of Crops in Turkey Using a Statistical Approach
In this study, simulation data set from ENSEMBLE project is used to set up a statistical model to estimate the yield of crops according to climatic variables and conditions. We chose fig as an example crop. Fig is grown around Aydın in Turkey. The number of days above 40°C between June and October, the number of days below −1°C between October and November, the mean of the maximum air temperature between June and September, the mean of minimum air temperature between October and November, annual total precipitation amount, annual mean of relative humidity and annual mean of cloud cover in that region are chosen as independent variables for multiple regression to estimate yield of fig for the period 1991–2000.
KeywordsRegional Climate Model Yield Amount Global Surface Temperature Ensemble Project Crop Growth Model
This work has been supported by Bogazici University BAP under project number 5130. We thank to Ayşe Rumeysa Muş for her help in preparation of regions’ coordinates. We want to give special thanks to Murat Türkeş for giving suggestions during the preparation of project.
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