Simulating the Climatology of Extreme Events for the Central Asia Domain Using the RegCM 4.0 Regional Climate Model
In this work, future changes in the frequency of the seasonal extreme climate events such as number, frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves (5 consecutive temperature days above the maximum temperature calendar day 90th percentiles, number of days per year that is above the same percentiles and greatest number of consecutive days above these percentiles) for the period of 2071–2100 over Central Asia (18.56°–70.13° East and 7.28°–142.4° North) with respect to the present period of 1971–2000 were studied in detail. Regional Climate Model RegCM 4.0 of Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) with ECHAM5 forcing data was used for hindcast and forecast projection. This region will very likely be affected by heat waves in winter and spring seasons and heat wave frequency, intensity and duration will increase significantly over the Arabian Peninsula in summer. On the other hand, cold spells will not change as much as heat waves over the region in all seasons.
KeywordsHeat Wave Regional Climate Model Arabian Peninsula Community Land Model Extreme Temperature Event
This work has been supported by Bogazici University BAP under project number 5130.
- Acar DZ, Türkeş M (2011) Climatology of hot days of the 2010 summer in Turkey and analysis of its atmospheric causes. In: Proceedings of the national geographical congress with international participation (CD-R), 7–10 Sep 2011, Türk Coğrafya Kurumu, İstanbul University (in Turkish with an English abstract). ISBN 978-975-6686-04-1Google Scholar
- Dickinson RE, Henderson-Sellers A, Kennedy PJ (1993) Biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme (bats) version 1e as coupled to the NCAR community climate model. Technical report, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, COGoogle Scholar
- Grell GA, Dudhia J, Stauffer DR (1994) Description of the fifth generation Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5). Technical report TN-398+STR. NCAR, Boulder, p. 121Google Scholar
- Kiehl JT, Hack JJ, Bonan GB, Boville BA, Breigleb BP, Williamson D, Rasch P (1996) Description of the NCAR community climate model (CCM3). Technical report NCAR/TN-420+STR. NCAR, BoulderGoogle Scholar
- Klein Tank AMG, Peterson TC, Quadir DA, Dorji S, Zou X, Tang H, Santhosh K, Joshi UR, Jaswal AK, Kolli RK, Sikder AB, Deshpande NR, Revadekar JV, Yeleuova K, Vandasheva S, Faleyeva M, Gomboluudev P, Budhathoki KP, Hussain A, Afzaal M, Chandrapala L, Anvar H, Amanmurad D, Asanova VS, Jones PD, New MG, Spektorman T (2006) Changes in daily temperature and precipitation extremes in central and south Asia. J Geophys Res 111:D16105CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Lioubimtseva E (2002) Arid environments. In: Shahgedanova M (ed) Physical geography of Northern Eurasia. Oxford University Press, Oxford, p 571Google Scholar
- Oleson KW, Niu GY, Yang ZL, Lawrence DM,Thornton PE, Lawrence PJ, Stockli R, Dickinson RE, Bonan GB, Levis S (2007) Community land model version 3.5 (CLM 3.5) documentation, NCAR report. Available at http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/tss/clm/distribution/clm3.5/CLM3_5_documentation.pdf
- Peterson TC, Folland C, Gruza G, Hogg W, Mokssit A, Plummer N (2001) Report on the activities of the working group on climate change detection and related rapporteurs 1998–2001. Report WCDMP-47, WMO-TD 1071. World Meteorological Organization, GenevaGoogle Scholar
- Roeckner E, Bäuml G, Bonaventur L, Brokopf R, Esch M, Giorgetta M, Hagemann S,Kirchner I, Kornblueh L, Manzini E, Rhodin A, Schlese U, Schulzweida U, Tompkins A (2003) The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5. Part I: Model description. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Report 349, 127ppGoogle Scholar
- Türkeş M (2010a) Climatology and meteorology, 1st edn. Kriter Publisher, Istanbul. Publication no. 63, Physical geography series no. 1, ISBN 978-605-5863-39-6, 650 + XXII pp (in Turkish)Google Scholar
- Türkeş M (2010b) Analysis of the UN convention to combat desertification with respect to the climate. Climate change and drought, and applications in Turkey. Invited panel paper. In: Proceedings of Çölleşme İle Mücadele Sempozyumu Tebliğler Kitabi, 17–18 June 2010, Çorum, pp 601–616 (in Turkish with an English abstract)Google Scholar