Regional Air Quality Simulations Over Europe in Present and Future Climate: Evaluation and Climate Change Impacts on Near Surface Ozone
Regional climate-air quality simulations were carried out over Europe with the RegCM3/CAMx modelling system for two future decades, 2041–2050 and 2091–2100 under IPCC A1B scenario and the control decade 1991–2000. The RegCM3/CAMx simulations for the present decade were driven either by ERA-40 reanalysis or the global circulation model (GCM) ECHAM5 while the simulations for the two future decades were driven by ECHAM. The simulations serve as a theoretical experiment to investigate the impact of changing climate on near surface ozone. The simulated ozone was evaluated with respect to near surface ozone measurements from the EMEP database for the control decade 1991–2000 indicating a relatively good performance of the RegCM3/CAMx modelling system in simulating near-surface ozone levels over Europe. Our projections in future suggest that the changes in near surface ozone imposed by climate change are small over the near future decade (2041–2050) but become significant over the end of twenty-first century. Specifically the ozone change over the future decade 2091–2100 is more intense over south-west Europe during summer, increasing by 6.2 ppbv as a result of the combination of relatively more stagnant conditions, increased temperatures and solar radiation within an anticyclonic anomaly.
KeywordsTropospheric Ozone Surface Ozone Anticyclonic Anomaly Stagnant Condition Future Decade
This work has been funded by the European Community’s Sixth Framework Programme as part of the project CECILIA (Central and Eastern Europe Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment) under Contract No. 037005.
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