Predicting Spatiotemporal Distribution of Transient Occupants in Urban Areas
In order to discuss in detail the environment and urban systems, it is necessary to consider not only static physical objects like buildings, but also the spatiotemporal aspects like the distribution of population.This paper aims to construct models that describe the spatiotemporal distribution of population in urban areas. The models are composed of parameters describing the number of persons per unit floor-area of buildings, which varies according to the time fluctuation factors and the location factors, and are calibrated using a person trip survey data and GIS data.We discuss the characteristics of the spatiotemporal distribution of population and the accuracy of the models, and demonstrate that the proposed models can benefit all phases of urban planning, which include risk assessment and disaster management.
KeywordsSpatiotemporal distribution Transient occupant Disaster management Person trip survey
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The authors would like to acknowledge the valuable comments and useful suggestions from anonymous reviewers to improve the content and clarity of the paper. This research is part of an effort supported by a Grant-in-Aid (21310105) from the Japan Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology Health (MEXT) and a Labor Sciences Research Grant, Scientific Research (B).
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