Abstract
A hibernating lifestyle makes animals sensitive to the changing of the environmental temperature. Therefore, the effect of currently ongoing climate change might be considerable on these species. To assess this effect, we estimated the body mass change during hibernation under three different climate scenarios, using computational modeling. The chosen nonlinear mixed effects modeling technique was suitable to describe body mass change during hibernation. The proposed model predicted a decrease in spring emergence body mass in predicted (2070–2100) compared to control period (1960–1990). Probably this difference (~2 g) has an insignificant effect on the survival of hibernating animals. Such small disturbances can be compensated by the animals themselves or by the advantageous side effects of climate change (extended active period, enhanced primer production), but along with other disturbances, such as human activities (e.g., landscape using) might contribute to altering population dynamics.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Barbraud C, Weimerskirch H (2001) Emperor penguins and climate change. Nature 411(6834):183–186
Barclay RMR, Lausen CL, Hollis L (2001) What’s hot and what’s not: defining torpor in free-ranging birds and mammals. Can J Zool 79(10):1885–1890
Barnes BM (1984) Influence of energy stores on activation of reproductive function in male golden-mantled ground-squirrels. J Comp Physiol [B] 154(4):421–425
Barnes BM (1989) Freeze avoidance in a mammal: body temperatures below 0°C in an Arctic hibernator. Science 244(4912):1593–1595
Barrett P (2003) Palaeoclimatology: cooling a continent. Nature 421(6920):221–223
Bartholy J, Pongracz R, Gelybó G, Szabó P (2008) Analysis of expected climate change in the Carpathian basin using the PRUDENCE results. Időjárás 112:249–264
Beal S, Sheiner LB, Boeckmann A, Bauer RJ (2011) NONMEM User’s Guides, version 7.2. Icon Development Solutions, Ellicott City
Buck CL, Barnes BM (2000) Effects of ambient temperature on metabolic rate, respiratory quotient, and torpor in an arctic hibernator. Am J Physiol-Reg I 279(1):R255–R262
Carey HV, Andrews MT, Martin SL (2003) Mammalian hibernation: cellular and molecular responses to depressed metabolism and low temperature. Physiol Rev 83(4):1153–1181
Dark J, Forger NG, Zucker I (1984) Rapid recovery of body mass after surgical removal of adipose tissue in ground squirrels. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 81(7):2270–2272
Dark J, Stern JS, Zucker I (1989) Adipose tissue dynamics during cyclic weight loss and weight gain of ground squirrels. Am J Physiol-Reg I 256(6):R1286–R1292
Davis DE (1976) Hibernation and circannual rhythms of food consumption in marmots and ground squirrels. Q Rev Biol 51(4):477
Dobson FS, Michener GR (1995) Maternal traits and reproduction in Richardsons ground-squirrels. Ecology 76(3):851–862
Frank CL (2002) Short-term variations in diet fatty acid composition and torpor by ground squirrels. J Mammal 83(4):1013–1019
Geiser F (1988) Reduction of metabolism during hibernation and daily torpor in mammals and birds—temperature effect or physiological inhibition. J Comp Physiol [B] 158(1):25–37
Geiser F (2004) Metabolic rate and body temperature reduction during hibernation and daily torpor. Annu Rev Physiol 66:239–274
Grigg Gordon C, Beard Lyn A, Augee Michael L (2004) The evolution of endothermy and its diversity in mammals and birds. Physiol Biochem Zool 77(6):982–997
Heldmaier G, Ortmann S, Elvert R (2004) Natural hypometabolism during hibernation and daily torpor in mammals. Resp Physiol Neurobi 141(3):317–329
Hodkinson ID (1999) Species response to global environmental change or why ecophysiological models are important: a reply to Davis et al. J Anim Ecol 68(6):1259–1262
Humphries MM, Thomas DW, Speakman JR (2002) Climate-mediated energetic constraints on the distribution of hibernating mammals. Nature 418(6895):313–316
Inouye DW, Barr B, Armitage KB, Inouye BD (2000) Climate change is affecting altitudinal migrants and hibernating species. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 97(4):1630–1633
Kausrud KL, Mysterud A, Steen H, Vik JO, Ostbye E, Cazelles B, Framstad E, Eikeset AM, Mysterud I, Solhoy T, Stenseth NC (2008) Linking climate change to lemming cycles. Nature 456(7218):93–97
Körtner G, Geiser F (2000) The temporal organization of daily torpor and hibernation: circadian and circannual rhythms. Chronobiol Int 17(2):103–128
Landry-Cuerrier M, Munro D, Thomas DW, Humphries MM (2008) Climate and resource determinants of fundamental and realized metabolic niches of hibernating chipmunks. Ecology 89(12):3306–3316
McCarty JP (2001) Ecological consequences of recent climate change. Cons Biol 15(2):320–331
Mercer JM, Roth VL (2003) The effects of Cenozoic global change on squirrel phylogeny. Science 299(5612):1568–1572
Millesi E, Huber S, Dittami J, Hoffmann I, Daan S (1998) Parameters of mating effort and success in male European ground squirrels, Spermophilus citellus. Ethology 104(4):298–313
Millesi E, Huber S, Everts LG, Dittami JP (1999a) Reproductive decisions in female European ground squirrels: factors affecting reproductive output and maternal investment. Ethology 105(2):163–175
Millesi E, Strijkstra AM, Hoffmann IE, Dittami JP, Daan S (1999b) Sex and age differences in mass, morphology, and annual cycle in European ground squirrels, Spermophilus citellus. J Mammal 80(1):218–231
Németh I, Nyitrai V, Altbäcker V (2009) Ambient temperature and annual timing affect torpor bouts and euthermic phases of hibernating European ground squirrels (Spermophilus citellus). Can J Zool 87(3):204–210
Neuhaus P, Broussard DR, Murie JO, Dobson FS (2004) Age of primiparity and implications of early reproduction on life history in female Columbian ground squirrels. J Anim Ecol 73(1):36–43
Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421(6918):37–42
Pillai G, Mentré F, Steimer J-L (2005) Non-linear mixed effects modeling—from methodology and software development to driving implementation in drug development science. J Pharmacokinet Pharmacodyn 32(2):161–183
Pinheiro J, Bates D (2002) Mixed effects models in S and S-Plus. Springer, New York
Pinheiro J, Bates D, DebRoy S, Sarkar D, the R Core team (2008) nlme: linear and nonlinear mixed effects models. R package version 3.1-89
Scholze M, Knorr W, Arnell NW, Prentice IC (2006) A climate-change risk analysis for world ecosystems. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103(35):13116–13120
Strijkstra AM, Hut RA, Millesi E, Daan S (1999) Energy expenditure during hibernation in european ground squirrels (Spermophilus citellus). In: Strijkstra AM (ed) Periodic euthermy during hibernation in the european ground squirrel: causes and consequences. PhD thesis, University of Groningen, pp 31–56
R Development Core Team (2011) R: a language and environment for statistical computing, version 2.13.0. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna
Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE, Bakkenes M, Beaumont LJ, Collingham YC, Erasmus BFN, de Siqueira MF, Grainger A, Hannah L, Hughes L, Huntley B, van Jaarsveld AS, Midgley GF, Miles L, Ortega-Huerta MA, Townsend Peterson A, Phillips OL, Williams SE (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427(6970):145–148
Walther GR, Post E, Convey P, Menzel A, Parmesan C, Beebee TJ, Fromentin JM, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Bairlein F (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416(6879):389–395
Wang LC (1979) Time patterns and metabolic rates of natural torpor in the Richardson’s ground squirrel. Can J Zool 57:149–155
Yano Y, Beal SL, Sheiner LB (2001) Evaluating pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic models using the posterior predictive check. J Pharmacokinet Pharmacodyn 28(2):171–192
Acknowledgments
Climate change data have been provided through the PRUDENCE data archive, funded by the EU through contract EVK2-CT2001-00132. Author thanks the approval of publication for the ICON Plc, the licensor of NONMEM®. We especially thank Celeste Pongrácz and Orsolya Zeöld for their valuable comments and corrections.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Németh, I. (2012). Assessing the Effect of Climate Change on Hibernating Mammals Using Nonlinear Mixed Effects Method. In: Ruf, T., Bieber, C., Arnold, W., Millesi, E. (eds) Living in a Seasonal World. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-28678-0_7
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-28678-0_7
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-28677-3
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-28678-0
eBook Packages: Biomedical and Life SciencesBiomedical and Life Sciences (R0)