Advertisement

Altering Security Dynamics? Climate Change Impacts on Iraq

  • Achim Maas
  • Kerstin Fritzsche
Chapter
Part of the Hexagon Series on Human and Environmental Security and Peace book series (HSHES, volume 8)

Abstract

Since the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), there is little doubt left that anthropogenic climate change occurs (IPCC 2007). Several authors assume that in case of insufficient mitigation, climate change impacts could have severe implications for societies (Adger/Lorenzoni/O’Brien 2009). While AR4 only addressed issues of conflict to a limited extent, the next IPCC report will do so more directly. 2 A large number of approaches and methods have already been developed to seek an understanding of the links between climate change and conflict. Despite offering certain advantages in the understanding of this complex matter, the existing approaches have a variety of limitations. In addition, regional dynamics are often not included to a sufficient degree when sub-national conflict risks are analysed.

Keywords

Climate Change Saudi Arabia Climate Change Impact Regional Security Violent Conflict 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Adger, W. Neil; Lorenzoni, Irene; O’Brien, Karen (Eds.) 2009: Adapting to Climate Change. Thresholds, Values, Governance. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).Google Scholar
  2. Alessandri, Emiliano 2010: The New Turkish Foreign Policy and the Future of Turkey-EU Relations. (Rome: Istituto Affari Internazionali); at: <http://www.iai.it/pdf/DocIAI/iai1003.pdf > (08 January 2011).
  3. Al-Mahdawi, Munadhil F. A., 2008: Transboundary water management towards promoting the integrated strategies in Tigris and Euphrates basins (Baghdad: Ministry of Water Resources, General Directorate of Water Resources Management).Google Scholar
  4. Assaf, Hamed, 2010: “Water Resources and Climate Change”, in: El-Ashry, Mohamed; Saab, Najib; Zeitoon, Bashar (Eds.): Arab Environment: Water. Sustainable Management of a Scarce Resource (Beirut: AFED).Google Scholar
  5. Asseburg, Muriel; Steinberg, Guido, 2007: “Konfliktdynamik im Nahen und Mittleren Osten”, in: Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte, B19/2007: 6–12.Google Scholar
  6. Aydin, Mustafa; Ereker, Fulya, 2009: “Water Scarcity and Political Wrangling: Security in Euphrates/Tigris Basin”, in: Brauch, Hans Günter; Oswald Spring, Úrsula; Grin, John; Mesjasz, Czeslaw; Kameri-Mbote, Patricia; Behera, Navnita Chadha; Chourou, Béchir; Krummenacher, Heinz (Eds.), 2009: Facing Global Environmental Change: Environmental, Human, Energy, Food, Health and Water Security Concepts. Hexagon Series on Human and Environmental Security and Peace, vol. 4 (Berlin – Heidelberg – New York: Springer-Verlag): 603–613.Google Scholar
  7. Beehner, Lionel, 2007: “The Effects of ‘Youth Bulges’ on Civil Conflicts; at: <http://www.cfr.org/publication/13093/> (8 November 2009).
  8. Brauch, Hans Günter, 2010: Climate change and Mediterranean security. International, national, environmental and human security impacts for the Euro-Mediterranean region during the 21st century. Proposals and perspectives. PapersIEMed. no. 9 (Barcelona: IEMed.)Google Scholar
  9. Brown, Nathan J., 2005: “Iraq’s Constitutional Process Plunges Ahead”; at: <http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/PO19Brown.pdf > (10 November 2009).
  10. Brown, Oli; Crawford, Alec, 2009: Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions. Climate change and the risk of violent conflict in the Middle East (Winnipeg: International Institute for Sustainable Development).Google Scholar
  11. Brown, Oli; Crawford, Alec, 2009a: Climate Change and Security in Africa. A Study for the Nordic-African Ministers Meeting (Winnipeg: International Institute for Sustainable Development).Google Scholar
  12. BTI (Bertelsmann Transformation Index), 2010: Bertelsmann Transformations Index 2010. Iraq Country Report (Gütersloh: Bertelsmann Stiftung).Google Scholar
  13. Buhaug, Halvard; Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Theisen, Ole Magnus, 2008: “Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict”, Paper for the World Bank Workshop on 'Social Dimensions of Climate Change', Washington DC, March 5–6.Google Scholar
  14. Buhaug, Halvard; Nils Petter Gleditsch and Ole Magnus Theisen, 2008: Implications of Climate Change for Violent conflict (Washington, DC: World Bank).Google Scholar
  15. Burke, Marshall B.; Miguel, Edward; Satyanath, Shanker; Dykema, John A.; Lobell. David B., 2009: “Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa”, in: Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciencies, 106,49; 20670–20674.Google Scholar
  16. Buzan, Barry; Wæver, Ole, 2003: Regions and Powers. The Structure of International Security (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).Google Scholar
  17. Buzan, Barry; Wæver, Ole; de Wilde, Jaap, 1998: Security. A New Framework for Analysis (Boulder – London: Lynne Rienner).Google Scholar
  18. Carius, Alexander; Maas, Achim, 2009: Climate Change and International Security. Technical Report (London: HTSPE).Google Scholar
  19. Carius, Alexander; Maas, Achim; Fritzsche, Kerstin, 2009: Climate Change and Security. Three Scenarios for South West Asia (Brussels: European Commission).Google Scholar
  20. Carius, Alexander; Tänzler, Dennis; Maas, Achim, 2008: Climate Change and Security – Challenges for German Development Cooperation (Eschborn: GTZ).Google Scholar
  21. Cheterian, Vicken, 2009: Environment and Security Issues in the Southern Mediterranean Region (Geneva: CIMERA).Google Scholar
  22. CNA (Center for Naval Analyses), 2007: National Security and the Threat of Climate Change (city: CNA); a: <http://securityandclimate.cna.org /> (30 July 2007).
  23. Dessai, Suraje; Hulme, Mike; Lempert, Robert; Pielke, Robert Jr., 2009: “Climate prediction: a limit to adaptation?”, in: Adger, W. Neil; Lorenzoni, Irene; O’Brien, Karen (Eds.): Adapting to Climate Change. Thresholds, Values, Governance (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press): 64–78.Google Scholar
  24. Eakin, Hallie; Tompkins, Eamma L.; Nelson, Donald R.; Anderies, John M., 2009: “Hidden costs and disparate uncertainties: Trade-offs in approaches to climate policy”, in: Adger, W. Neil; Lorenzoni, Irene; O’Brien, Karen (Eds.): Adapting to Climate Change. Thresholds, Values, Governance (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press): 212–227.Google Scholar
  25. El Raey, Mohamed, 2010: “Impact of Sea Level Rise on the Arab Region”, at: <http://arabclimatewatch.org/egypt/ElRaey_Impact_of_Sea_Level_Rise_on_the_Arab_Region.pdf > (5 January 2011).
  26. Elasha, Balgis Osman, 2010: Mapping of Climate Change Threats and Human Development Impacts in the Arab Region. Arab Human Development Report Research Paper Series (New York: UNDP/RBAS).Google Scholar
  27. El-Fadel, M.; Bou-Zeid, E., 2001: Climate Change and Water Resources in the Middle East: Vulnerability, Socio-Economic Impacts, and Adaptation. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) Working Paper No. 46 (city: FEEM).Google Scholar
  28. Ennahar online, 13 July 2009: “Sand storms, the new enemy in Iraq”, at: <http://www.ennaharonline.com/en/international/1666.html> (11 November 2009).
  29. European Union (EU), 2008: Climate Change and International Security. Paper from the High Representative and the European Commission to the European Council. S113/08 14 March 2008; at: <http://www.consilium.europa.eu/ueDocs/cms_Data/docs/pressData/en/reports/99387.pdf > (3 July 2009).
  30. Freimuth, Ladeene; Bromberg, Gidon; Mehyar, Munqueth; al Khateeb, Nadeer, 2007: Climate Change: A New Threat to Middle East Security; at: <http://www.foeme.org/index_images/dinamicas/publications/publ78_1.pdf > (24 March 2008).
  31. Fürtig, Henner 2010: Parlamentswahlen im Irak: Licht am Ende des Tunnels? GIGA Focus n° 3, 2010 (Hamburg: GIGA).Google Scholar
  32. Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Nordås, Ragnhild, 2009: “Climate Change and Conflict. A Critical Overview”, in: Die Friedenswarte, 84,2: 11–28.Google Scholar
  33. Gleick, P.H. 1994. “Water, war, and peace in the Middle East”, in: Environment, 36,3: 6–42.Google Scholar
  34. Granit, Jakob; Löfgren, Rebecca, 2010: Charting Cooperative Ways on the Water and Development Nexus in the Euphrates-Tigres River System. World Water Week Seminar 5 September 2010. Report 26 October 2010 (Stockholm: Stockholm International Water Institute).Google Scholar
  35. Halden, Peter 2007: The Geopolitics of Climate Change. Challenges to the International System (Stockholm: FOI).Google Scholar
  36. HIIK (Heidelberger Institut für international Konfliktforschung), 2009: Conflict Barometer 2009 (Heidelberg: Heidelberger Institut für international Konfliktforschung).Google Scholar
  37. HIIK (Heidelberger Institut für international Konfliktforschung), 2002: Konfliktbarometer 2002. Heidelberg: Heidelberger Institut für international Konfliktforschung.Google Scholar
  38. ICG (International Crisis Group), 2009: Iraq’s New Battlefront: The Struggle over Ninewa. MENA Report N°90 (Mosul – Washington – Brussels: ICG)Google Scholar
  39. ICG (International Crisis Group), 2009a: Iraq and the Kurds: Trouble along the Trigger Line. Middle East Report N°88 (Bagdhad – Erbil – Brussels: ICG).Google Scholar
  40. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2007: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Working Group II Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Summary for Policymakers; at: <http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM13apr07.pdf> (30 July 2007).
  41. IRIN 2009: Iraq: Iraq’s marshlands in peril again (Baghdad: IRIN, 21 September 2009); at: <http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportID=86222 > (8 January 2011).
  42. IRIN 2010: Iraq: Killing for water (Baghdad: IRIN, 23 June 2010); at: <http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportID=89586 > (08 January 2011).
  43. Jenkins, Gareth, 2008: Turkey and Northern Iraq: An Overview (Washington: The Jamestown Foundation).Google Scholar
  44. Kitoh, A.; Yatagai, A.; Alpert, P., 2008: “First super-high-resolution model projection that the ancient ‘Fertile Crescent’ will disappear in this century”, in: Hydrological Research Letters vol.,no. 2: 1–4.Google Scholar
  45. Lee, Geun, 2007: “A Regional Environmental Security-Complex Approach”, in: Hyun, In-Taek; Schreurs, Miranda (Eds.) 2007: The Environmental Dimension of Asian Security. Conflict and Cooperation over Energy, Resources and Pollution (Washington: United States Institute for Peace): 23–40.Google Scholar
  46. Lee, James R., 2009: Climate Change and Violent conflict. Hot and Cold Wars (London – New York: Routledge).Google Scholar
  47. Pakistan, 2003: Pakistan’s Initial National Communication on Climate Change; at: <http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/paknc1.pdf > (11 November 2009).
  48. Raouf, Mohamed A., 2008: Climate Change Threats, Opportunities, and the GCC Countries. Policy Brief no. 12, April 2008 (Washington D.C.: MEI).Google Scholar
  49. Raphaeli, Nimrod, 2009: “Water Crisis in Iraq – The Growing Danger of Desertification”; at: <http://www.memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Page=archives&Area=ia&ID=IA53709> (15 November 2009).
  50. Reuters, 2009: “Turkey lets more water out of dams to Iraq: MP”, at: <http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSTRE54M0XG20090523 > (8 November 2009).
  51. Reuters, 2009a: “Turkey allows more water to drought-ravaged Iraq”, at: <http://in.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idINLJ46803020090919 > (8 November 2009).
  52. Royal Society, 2009: Geoengineering the Climate. Science, Governance and Uncertainty (London: The Royal Society).Google Scholar
  53. Saleh, Walid; Jayyousi, Anan Fakhri; Almasri, Mohammad N., 2010: “State of Freshwater Ecosystems”, in: El-Ashry, Mohamed; Saab, Najib; Zeitoon, Bashar (Eds.): Arab Environment: Water. Sustainable Management of a Scarce Resource (Beirut: AFED).Google Scholar
  54. Salliot, Emmanuel, 2009: “Climate change and security: methodology and survey of security events 1967–2007”, at: <http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/29/0/44323539.pdf > (23 February 2010).
  55. Scheumann, Waltima, 2003: “The Euphrates Issue in Turkish- Syrian Relations”, in: Brauch, Hans Günter; Liotta, P.H; Marquina, Antonio; Rogers, Paul; Selim, Mohammad El-Sayed (Eds.): Security and Environment in the Mediterranean. Conceptualising Security and Environmental Conflicts (Berlin – Heidelberg: Springer 2003): 745–760.Google Scholar
  56. Sirriyeh, Hussein, 2007: “Iraq and the Region Since the War of 2003”, in: Civil Wars, 9,1: 106–125.Google Scholar
  57. Smith, David; Vivekananda, Janani, 2007: A Climate of Conflict. The links between climate change, peace and war (London: International Alert).Google Scholar
  58. SWAC/OECD, 2009: Security implications of climate change in the Sahel region; at: <http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/32/60/43914992.pdf > (22 February 2010).
  59. Swatuk, Larry A., 2007: Regionalexpertise – Southern Africa, Environmental Change and Regional Security: An Assessment; at: <http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_jg2007_ex07.pdf > (20 November 2008).
  60. Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, 2008: The Black Swan. The Impact of the Highly Improbable (London: Penguin Books).Google Scholar
  61. Tolba, Mustafa K.; Saab, Najib, 2009: Arab Environment: Impact of Climate Change on the Arab Countries (Beirut: AFED).Google Scholar
  62. UNDP (United Nations Development Programme), 2007: Conference Spotlights Water Challenges in Iraq; at: <http://www.unisa.edu.au/waterpolicylaw/documents/PressRelease-EN(rev1).pdf > (6 November 2009).
  63. UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme), 2003: Desk Study on the Environment in Iraq (Nairobi: UNEP).Google Scholar
  64. UNPD (United Nations Population Division), 2008: “World Population Prospects. The 2008 Revision. Country Profile Iraq”; at: <http://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp?panel=3 > (9 November 2009).
  65. UNSG (United Nations Secretary-General), 2009: Climate Change and its Possible Security Implications. Report of the UN Secretary-General (New York: UN); at: <http://daccess-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N09/509/46/PDF/N0950946.pdf?OpenElement > (6 November 2009).
  66. UNWFP (United Nations World Food Programme), 2008: “Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis of Iraq”; at: <http://home.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/communications/wfp192255.pdf > (22 February 2010).
  67. Urdal, Henrik 2007: “The Demographics of Political Violence: Youth Bulges, Insecurity and Conflict”, in: Brainard, Lael; Chollet, Derek (Eds.) 2007: Too Poor for Peace? Global Poverty, Conflict and Insecurity in the 21st Century (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution): 90–100.Google Scholar
  68. WBGU (Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderung), 2008: World in Transition – Climate Change as a Security Risk (London: Earthscan).Google Scholar
  69. WBGU, 2007: Welt im Wandel – Sicherheitsrisiko Klimawandel (Berlin – Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag). Google Scholar
  70. Welzer, Harald 2008: Klimakriege. Wofür im 21. Jahrhundert getötet wird (Berlin: Fischer).Google Scholar
  71. World Bank, 2007: Making the Most of Scarcity. Accountability for Better Water Management Results in the Middle East and North Africa (Washington: World Bank).Google Scholar
  72. Yacoubian, Mona, 2007: Syria’s Relations with Iraq. USIPeace Brief, April 2007; at: <http://www.usip.org/files/resources/syria_iraq.pdf > (8 January 2011).
  73. Zhang, David D.; Brecke, Peter: Lee, Harry F.; He, Yuan-Qing; Zhan, Jane, 2007: “Global climate change, war and population decline in recent human history”, in PNAS, 104,49: 19214–19219.Google Scholar
  74. Zhang, David D.; Zhang, Jane; Lee, Harry F.; He, Yuanqing, 2007: “Climate Change and War Frequency in Eastern China over the Last Millennium”, in: Human Ecology 35,no.: 403–414.Google Scholar
  75. Zimmermann, Doron, 2007: “Calibrating Disorder: Iran's Role in Iraq and the Coalition Response, 2003–2006”, in: Civil Wars, 9,1; 8–31.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.adelphiBerlinGermany

Personalised recommendations