Abstract
Prospective risk analysis is difficult in complex sociotechnical systems where humans interact with one other and with information systems. Traditional prospective risk analysis methods typically capture one risk at a time and rely on the specification of a chronological sequence of errors occurring in combination. The aim here is to introduce agent-based risk assessment (ABRA), which addresses these issues by simulating multiple concurrent and sequential interactions amongst autonomous agents that act according to their own goals. The methodology underlying the construction, simulation and validation of ABRA models is detailed along with practical considerations associated with implementation, for which the Brahms agent-based simulation framework is used. The challenges of implementing agent-based risk assessment models include the need for well-defined work processes and reliable observational data, and difficulties associated with behavioural validation. As an example illustrating the technique, a simple race condition hazard is implemented using an ABRA model. The work process involves a human operator and a machine interface that interact to sometimes produce the erroneous transfer of information. The correctness of the model is confirmed by comparing the simulated results against the well-defined theoretical baseline.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Baird, D.R., Henry, M., Liddell, K.G., Mitchell, C.M., Sneddon, J.G.: Post-Operative Endophthalmitis: The Application of Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points (HACCP) to an Infection Control Problem. Journal of Hospital Infection 49, 14–22 (2001)
Barlas, Y.: Formal Aspects of Model Validity and Validation in System Dynamics. System Dynamics Review 12, 183–210 (1996)
Bharathy, G., Silverman, B.: Validating Agent Based Social Systems Models. In: Proceedings of the 2010 Winter Simulation Conference, pp. 441–453 (2010)
Bonan, B., Martelli, N., Berhoune, M., Maestroni, M.-L., Havard, L., Prognon, P.: The Application of Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points and Risk Management in the Preparation of Anti-Cancer Drugs. International Journal for Quality in Health Care 21, 44–50 (2009)
Bonnabry, P., Cingria, L., Sadeghipour, F., Ing, H., Fonzo-Christe, C., Pfister, R.E.: Use of a Systematic Risk Analysis Method to Improve Safety in the Production of Paediatric Parenteral Nutrition Solutions. Quality and Safety in Health Care 14, 93–98 (2005)
Burgmeier, J.: Failure Mode and Effect Analysis: An Application in Reducing Risk in Blood Transfusion. Joint Commission Journal on Quality Improvement 28, 331–339 (2002)
Chiozza, M.L., Ponzetti, C.: FMEA: A Model for Reducing Medical Errors. Clinica Chimica Acta 404, 75–78 (2009)
Cohen, M.R., Senders, J., Davis, N.M.: Failure Mode and Effects Analysis: A Novel Approach to Avoiding Dangerous Medication Errors and Accidents. Hospital Pharmacy 29, 319–330 (1994)
Dunn, A.G., Ong, M.-S., Westbrook, J.I., Magrabi, F., Coiera, E., Wobcke, W.R.: A Simulation Framework for Mapping Risks in Clinical Processes: The Case of In-Patient Transfers. Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association (to appear, 2011)
Duwe, B., Fuchs, B.D., Hansen-Flaschen, J.: Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Application to Critical Care Medicine. Critical Care Clinics 21, 21–30 (2005)
Epstein, J.M.: Why Model? Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 11(4), 12 (2008)
Griffith, C., Obee, P., Cooper, R.: The Clinical Application of Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points (HACCP). American Journal of Infection Control 33, e39 (2005)
Iedema, R.A.M., Jorm, C., Long, D., Braithwaite, J., Travaglia, J., Westbrook, M.: Turning the Medical Gaze in Upon Itself: Root Cause Analysis and the Investigation of Clinical Error. Social Science & Medicine 62, 1605–1615 (2006)
Klügl, F.: A Validation Methodology for Agent-Based Simulations. In: Proceedings of the 2008 ACM Symposium on Applied Computing, pp. 39–43 (2008)
Koppel, R., Wetterneck, T., Telles, J.L., Karsh, B.-T.: Workarounds to Barcode Medication Administration Systems: Their Occurences, Causes, and Threats to Patient Safety. Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association 15, 408–423 (2008)
Leveson, N., Turner, C.S.: An Investigation of the Therac-25 Accidents. IEEE Computer 26(7), 18–41 (1993)
Marx, D.A., Slonim, A.D.: Assessing Patient Safety Risk Before the Injury Occurs: An Introduction to Sociotechnical Probabilistic Risk Modelling in Health Care. Quality and Safety in Health Care 12, ii33–ii38 (2003)
Ong, M.-S., Coiera, E.: Safety Through Redundancy: A Case Study of In-Hospital Patient Transfers. Quality and Safety in Health Care (2010) (to appear)
Rasmussen, J., Nixon, P., Warner, F.: Human Error and the Problem of Causality in Analysis of Accidents [and Discussion]. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series B, Biological Sciences 327, 449–462 (1990)
Reason, J.: Human Error: Models and Management. British Medical Journal 320, 768–770 (2000)
Robinson, D.L., Heigham, M., Clark, J.: Using Failure Mode and Effects Analysis for Safe Administration of Chemotherapy to Hospitalized Children with Cancer. Joint Commission Journal on Quality and Patient Safety 32, 161–166 (2006)
Runciman, B., Merry, A., Walton, M.: Safety and Ethics in Healthcare, Ashgate, Aldershot (2007)
Sierhuis, M., Clancey, W.J., van Hoof, R.J.J.: Brahms: A Multi-Agent Modelling Environment for Simulating Work Processes and Practices. International Journal of Simulation and Process Modelling 3, 134–152 (2007)
Spear, S.J., Schmidhofer, M.: Ambiguity and Workarounds as Contributors to Medical Error. Annals of Internal Medicine 142, 627–630 (2005)
West, E.: Organisational Sources of Safety and Danger: Sociological Contributions to the Study of Adverse Events. Quality and Safety in Health Care 9, 120–126 (2000)
Windrum, P., Fagiolo, G., Moneta, A.: Empirical Validation of Agent-Based Models: Alternatives and Prospects. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 10(2), 8 (2007)
Wooldridge, M., Jennings, N.R.: Intelligent Agents: Theory and Practice. The Knowledge Engineering Review 10, 115–152 (1995)
Woolf, S.H., Kuzel, A.J., Dovey, S.M., Phillips Jr., R.L.: A String of Mistakes: The Importance of Cascade Analysis in Describing, Counting, and Preventing Medical Errors. Annals of Family Medicine 2, 317–326 (2004)
Wreathall, J., Nemeth, C.: Assessing Risk: The Role of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) in Patient Safety Improvement. Quality and Safety in Health Care 13, 206–212 (2004)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Wobcke, W., Dunn, A. (2012). Agent-Based Modelling for Risk Assessment of Routine Clinical Processes. In: Desai, N., Liu, A., Winikoff, M. (eds) Principles and Practice of Multi-Agent Systems. PRIMA 2010. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 7057. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-25920-3_37
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-25920-3_37
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-25919-7
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-25920-3
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)