It is the Poor And the Marginalized That Are Hit Hardest By Climate Change
In impact assessment, we take a range of scenarios of likely climate change and use these as inputs to impact models. If investigating impacts on agricultural production, we would run crop models for different places to look at changes in crop yield of different crops, how they may vary for different climate scenarios. Then we might modify fertilizer application and irrigation, just as possible forms of adaptation, to see how much flexibility there is in possible management response. This gives us an idea of yield changes due to climate change, which we can then translate into estimates of altered production potential for a region. And from there, using UN projections for increasing demand (due to the growing number of people and demand per capita), we can estimate the effect on risk of hunger. So we are building a chain of models, connecting them but also being aware of the uncertainty that increases as you go down that chain.