Abstract
Spatial microsimulation is an excellent option to create estimated populations at a range of spatial scales where data may be otherwise unavailable. In this chapter, we outline three common methods of spatial microsimulation, identifying the relative strengths and weaknesses of each approach. We conclude with a worked example using deterministic reweighting to estimate tobacco smoking prevalence by neighborhood in London, UK. This illustrates how spatial microsimulation may be used to estimate not only populations but also behaviors and how this information may then be used to predict the outcomes of policy change at the local level.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Anderson B (2007) Creating small-area income estimates: spatial microsimulation modeling. Department for Communities and Local Government. Communities and Local Government, London
Ballas D, Rossiter D, Thomas B, Clarke G, Dorling D (2005) Geography matters. Simulating the local impacts of national social policies. Joseph Rowntree Foundation, York
Beckman RJ, Baggerly KA, McKay MD (1996) Creating synthetic baseline populations. Transport Res Part A 30(6):415–429
Birkin M, Clarke M (1988) SYNTHESIS – a synthetic spatial information system for urban and regional analysis: methods and examples. Environ Plann A 20:1645–1671
Birkin M, Clarke M (1989) The generation of individual and household incomes at the small area level using SYNTHESIS. Reg Stud 23(6):535–548
Birkin M, Wu B (2012) A review of microsimulation and hybrid agent-based models. In: Heppenstall AJ, Crooks AT, See LM, Batty M (eds) Agent-based models of geographical systems. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 51–68
Brown L, Harding A (2002) Social modeling and public policy: application of microsimulation modeling in Australia. Jasss J Artif Soc Soc Simul 5:4
Congdon P (2006) Estimating diabetes prevalence by small area in England. J Pub Health 28(1):71–81
Crooks A, Heppenstall A (2012) Introduction to agent-based modeling. In: Heppenstall AJ, Crooks AT, See LM, Batty M (eds) Agent-based models of geographical systems. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 85–108
Davies L (1987) Genetic algorithms and simulated annealing: research notes in artificial intelligence. Pitman, London
Gilbert N, Troitzsch KG (2005) Simulation for the social scientist. Open University Press, Berkshire
Harland K, Heppenstall AJ, Smith DM, Birkin MH (2012) Creating realistic synthetic populations at varying spatial scales: a comparative critique of population synthesis techniques. J Artif Soc Soc Simul 15:1
Kennell DL, Sheils JF (1990) PRISM: dynamic simulation of pension and retirement income. In: Lewis GH, Michel RC (eds) Microsimulation techniques for tax and transfer analysis. The Urban Institute Press, Washington, DC
Lambert S, Percival R, Schofield D, Paul S (1994) An introduction to STINMOD: a static microsimulation Model, NATSEM Technical Paper No 1. University of Canberra, Canberra
Liu R (2005) The DRACULA dynamic network microsimulation model. In: Kitamura R, Kuwahara M (eds) Simulation approaches in transportation analysis: recent advances and challenges. Springer, pp. 23–56. ISBN0-387-24108-6
Moon G, Quarendon G, Barnard S, Twigg L, Blyth B (2007) Fat nation: deciphering the distinctive geographies of obesity in England. Soc Sci Med 65(1):25–31
O’Donoghue C (2001) Dynamic microsimulation: a methodological survey. Brazilian Elect J Econ 4:2
Openshaw S (1995) Developing automated and smart spatial pattern exploration tools for geographical information systems applications. Statistician 44:3–16
Openshaw S, Rao L (1995) Algorithms for reengineering 1991 census geography. Environ Plann A 27:425–446
Otten RHJM, van Ginneken LPPP (1989) The annealing algorithm. The Springer Int Ser Engin Comp Sci 72(1):5–17
Redmond G, Sutherland H, Wilson M (1998) The arithmetic of tax and social security reform: a user’s guide to microsimulation: methods and analysis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Rephann TJ (1999) The education module for SVERIGE: Documentation V 1.0. Available at: http://www.equotient.net/papers/educate.pdf
Smith DM, Clarke GP, Harland K (2009) Improving the synthetic data generation process in spatial microsimulation models. Environ Plann A 41(5):1251–1268
Smith DM, Pearce JR, Harland K (2011) Can a deterministic spatial microsimulation model provide reliable small-area estimates of health behaviors? An example of smoking prevalence in New Zealand. Health Place 17:618–624
Voas D, Williamson P (2000) An evaluation of the combinatorial optimisation approach to the creation of synthetic microdata. Int J Popul Geogr 6:349–366
Voas D, Williamson P (2001) Evaluating goodness-of-fit measures for synthetic microdata. Geograph Environ Model 5:177–200
Williamson P, Clarke GP (1996) Estimating small-area demands for water with the use of microsimulation. In: Clarke GP (ed) Microsimulation for urban and regional policy analysis. Pion, London, pp 117–148
Williamson P, Birkin M, Rees P (1998) The estimation of population microdata by using data from small area statistics and samples of anonymised records. Environ Plann A 30:785–816
Wu BM, Birkin MH (2012) Agent-based extensions to a spatial microsimulation model of demographic change. In Heppenstall AJ, Crooks AT, See LM, Batty M (eds) Agent-based models of geographical systems. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 347–360
Acknowledgments
This work was funded by the ESRC funded grant “Modeling Individual Consumer Behavior” (RES-061-25-0030) and MRC Population Health Scientist Fellowship (G0802447). The modeling framework used was developed by Kirk Harland.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this entry
Cite this entry
Heppenstall, A.J., Smith, D.M. (2014). Spatial Microsimulation. In: Fischer, M., Nijkamp, P. (eds) Handbook of Regional Science. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-23430-9_65
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-23430-9_65
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-23429-3
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-23430-9
eBook Packages: Business and Economics