Estimation of Wheat Productivity Under Changing Climate in Plains Zones of Chhattisgarh Using Crop Simulation Model

Abstract

The productivity of wheat is marginal in Eastern Central India and slight decrease may turn cultivation of wheat unviable due to low returns. Thus, it is inevitable to test the performance of wheat crop in the future climate change scenario. Simulation model, with its complete ability to simulate the soil-plant-atmospheric system, offers an ideal tool to analyse response of wheat to changing climatic conditions. Crop simulation model not only saves the precise time but also the huge cost of experimentation. Keeping in mind the implications of climate change on agriculture CERES-Wheat crop simulation model was calibrated and validated in Chhattisgarh conditions and wheat response was simulated in projected increased temperature scenarios. To have an idea of the effect of changing climate on wheat productivity, crop simulation model, CERES-Wheat has been used to simulate the effect of global warming on wheat production. The results showed that anthesis, physiological maturity, biomass, grains per ear & grain yield were highly sensitive to change in temperature. The biomass and grain yield decreased at varying degree ranging from 7% to 44% in case of biomass and from 10% to 48% in case of grain yield, when the temperature was increased in the range of 1–3°C. When temperature was decreased up to 3°C, the increasing trends in the biomass and grain yield were observed to the tune of 20–80% and 19–79%, respectively.