Biorhythmic Analysis to Prevent Aviation Accidents

  • R. K. Saket
  • Wg. Cdr. S. P. Kaushik
  • Col. Gurmit Singh
Part of the Studies in Computational Intelligence book series (SCI, volume 338)

Abstract

The Word “Biorhythm” is derived from the Greek word “Bios” which means life and “Rhythm” which means flowing with a regular movement. Biorhythm theory uses mostly scientific methods to chart the rhythms or cycles that affect the internal functioning of the body and of human behavior. This is particularly applicable to the physical, emotional and intellectual or mental abilities. Biorhythm theory states that, at the moment of birth three statistical cycles are initiated and these will recur consistently throughout life. This chapter proposes an investigation of the reasons for human error as a contributing factor in flying accidents. Physical factors such as man machine interactions involved in flying mistakes and a taxonomic approach to errors has been proposed in this chapter, in order to avoid accidents. This chapter presents a new methodology based on a probabilistic approach for biorhythmic analysis in an attempt to prevent aviation accidents. The methodology has been developed using a Gaussian distribution technique for evaluation of the aviation system reliability considering the biorhythmic effects on the pilot. Normal distributed data from the US air force were tested and analyzed. These were based on the performance ability of pilots and the peak demand of the performance using a Gaussian distribution approach. Validation of an aircraft accident due to biorhythm is explained in this chapter with consideration of the peak performance demand and differing standard deviations in the performance ability of each pilot. A new curve named the Incident - Duration Curve has been introduced. This is based on a biorhythmic analysis of Indian and US air force data. The area under normal distribution curve of the US air force data represents the successful performance ability zone of the Pilot. The accident zone is the area of operation during which the Performance Demand exceeds the Performance Ability of the particular aircraft pilot. Operation within the zone of the normal distribution curve is successful owing to ability and fitness of the particular pilot. Failure probabilities considering Peak Performance Demand and pilot’s ability have been evaluated using a Gaussian distribution approach. A Safety Factor Concept is also given in this chapter. This has been done so as to include biorhythmic analysis in the attempt to avoid aviation accidents. A Stepped Incident-Duration Curve has been utilized in order to evaluate the particular pilot’s reliability when using the system. The complete aviation system was evaluated by using Simpson’s 1/3rd rule.

Keywords

Biorhythmic Analysis Incident-Duration Curve Performance Ability of that pilot included items such as: Performance Demand Accident Prone Zone/Critical day Gaussian distribution Reliability Evaluation Safety Factor 

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • R. K. Saket
    • 1
  • Wg. Cdr. S. P. Kaushik
    • 2
  • Col. Gurmit Singh
    • 3
  1. 1.Department of Electrical Engineering, Institute of TechnologyBanaras Hindu UniversityVaranasiIndia
  2. 2.Department of Mechanical EngineeringSobhasaria Engineering CollegeSikarIndia
  3. 3.Faculty of Engineering and TechnologySam Higginbottom Institute of Agriculture, Technology and Sciences-Deemed UniversityAllahabadIndia

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