Skip to main content
Book cover

Early Warning for Geological Disasters pp 207–226Cite as

The Last-Mile Evacuation Project: A Multi-disciplinary Approach to Evacuation Planning and Risk Reduction in Tsunami-Threatened Coastal Areas

Part of the Advanced Technologies in Earth Sciences book series (ATES)

Abstract

In view of recent tragic and disastrous tsunami events such as the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 or the Tohoku-Oki tsunami in 2011 it is still indispensable to aim at deepening our insight into the mechanisms which turn natural disasters into life-changing events for those individuals living at regions at risk. In this context risk mitigation on the basis of well-implemented early warning systems is inevitable to reduce human losses and to pave the way for specific measures on disaster recovery. A possible work chain to assess this complex objective is exemplified by the interdisciplinary “Last-Mile Evacuation project” which focused on the city of Padang, Indonesia. This city is one of the cities worldwide most imperiled by tsunamis since it is located in the direct neighborhood to the Sunda arc with an average warning time below 30 min. The work chain presented in the present paper comprises the generation and compilation of the underlying geo data basis, the simulation of hydrodynamics, the assessment of physical vulnerability using remote sensing data and techniques, the assessment of social vulnerability related with people’s exposure, risk perception, and evacuation behavior, and the modeling of potential evacuation routes. While the main focus of the original project was on city-wide risk assessment, the focal point of this study is a close-up view of the micro-scale dynamics of inundation and evacuation on urban district level. The existing situation and urban setting is subsequently compared with alternative shelter options. Additionally, qualitative information on social aspects to be considered in developing appropriate mitigation options is outlined. It is anticipated to communicate best-practice knowledge on how to approach the assessment of tsunami hazard with potential overlapping areas to other natural disasters.

Keywords

  • Social Vulnerability
  • Disaster Risk Reduction
  • Evacuation Time
  • Tsunami Hazard
  • Evacuation Route

These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-12233-0_11
  • Chapter length: 20 pages
  • Instant PDF download
  • Readable on all devices
  • Own it forever
  • Exclusive offer for individuals only
  • Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout
eBook
USD   109.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • ISBN: 978-3-642-12233-0
  • Instant PDF download
  • Readable on all devices
  • Own it forever
  • Exclusive offer for individuals only
  • Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout
Softcover Book
USD   149.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
Hardcover Book
USD   199.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
Learn about institutional subscriptions
Fig. 11.1
Fig. 11.2
Fig. 11.3
Fig. 11.4
Fig. 11.5
Fig. 11.6
Fig. 11.7

Notes

  1. 1.

    For further explanation on the analysis methods and findings see Setiadi and Birkmann (2010); Setiadi et al. (2010); Setiadi (2011a); Taubenböck et al. (2012).

  2. 2.

    Please note that especially the qualitative data represent the situation in the city up to the data collection period. Slight changes in the city may have taken place, especially after the major earthquake event in September 2009 and the latest progress in disaster management of the city.

References

  • Bernard E, Mofjeld H, Tito V, Synolakis C, Gonzalez F, Purvis M, Sharpe J, Mayberry G, Robertson R (2006) Tsunami: scientific frontiers, mitigation, forecasting and policy implications. Philos Trans R Soc A: Math Phys Eng Sci 364(1845):1989–2007

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Birkmann J (2006) Measuring vulnerability to promote disaster resilient societies: conceptual frameworks and definitions. In: Birkmann J (ed) Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards: towards disaster resilient societies. United Nations University, New York, pp 9–54

    Google Scholar 

  • Bogardi J (2004) Hazards, risks and vulnerabilities in a changing environment. Glob Environ Change 14:361–365

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Borrero JC, Sieh K, Chlieh M, Synolakis CE (2006) Tsunami inundation modeling for western Sumatra. Proc Nat Acad Sci USA 103(52):19673–19677

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Flötteröd G, Lämmel G (2010) Evacuation simulation with limited capacity sinks. In: Filipe J, Kacprzyk J (eds) Proceedings of the international conference on evolutionary computation. SciTePress, Valencia, pp 249–254

    Google Scholar 

  • Gonzáles F, Bernard EN, Meinig C, Eble MC, Mofjeld HO, Stalin S (2005) The NTHMP tsunameter network. Nat Hazards 35:25–39

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Goseberg N (2011) The run-up of long waves—laboratory-scaled geophysical reproduction and onshore interaction with macro-roughness elements. Ph.D. thesis, University Hannover, Germany. http://edok01.tib.uni-hannover.de/edoks/e01dh11/662627997.pdf

  • Lämmel G (2011) Escaping the tsunami: evacuation strategies for large urban areas. Concepts and implementation of a multi-agent based approach. Ph.D. thesis, TU Berlin. http://opus.kobv.de/tuberlin/volltexte/2011/3270/

  • Lämmel G, Grether D, Nagel K (2010) The representation and implementation of time-dependent inundation in large-scale microscopic evacuation simulations. Trans Res Part C: Emerg Technol 18(1):84–98

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Lämmel G, Klüpfel H, Nagel K (2011) Risk minimizing evacuation strategies under uncertainty. In: Peacock R, Kuligowski E, Averill J (eds) Pedestrian and evacuation dynamics. New York, Springer, pp 287–296

    Google Scholar 

  • Lämmel G, Flötteröd G (2009) Towards system optimum: finding optimal routing strategies in time-dependent networks for large-scale evacuation problems. In: Mertsching B, Hund M, Aziz Z (eds) KI 2009: advances in artificial intelligence. LNCS (LNAI), vol 5803. Springer, Heidelberg, pp 532–539

    Google Scholar 

  • Lämmel G, Klüpfel H, Nagel K (2009) The MATSim network flow model for traffic simulation adapted to large-scale emergency egress and an application to the evacuation of the Indone-sian city of Padang in case of a tsunami warning. In: Timmermans H (ed) Pedestrian behavior, chapter 11. Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Bingley, pp 245–265

    Google Scholar 

  • Lauterjung J, Münch U, Rudloff A (2010) The challenge of installing a tsunami early warning system in the vicinity of the Sunda Arc. Indonesia Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 10:641–646

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • McCloskey J, Antonioli A, Piatanesi A, Sieh K, Steacy S, Nalbant S, Cocco M, Giunchi C, Huang J, Dunlop P (2007) Tsunami threat in the Indian Ocean from a future megathrust earthquake west of Sumatra. Earth Planet Sci Lett 265:61–81

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Muhari A, Imamura F, Natawidjaja DH, Diposaptono S, Latief H, Post J, Ismail FA (2010) Tsunami mitigation efforts with pTA in west Sumatra province, Indonesia. J Earthq Tsunami 4:341–368

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Nash J (1951) Non-cooperative games. Ann Math 54(2):286–295

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Natawidjaja DH, Sieh K, Chlieh M, Galetzka J, Suwarfadi BW, Cheng H, Edwards RL, Avouac JP, Ward SN (2006) Source parameters of the great Sumatran megathrust earthquake of 1797 and 1833 inferred from coral microatolls. JGR 111:B06403. doi:10.1029/2005JB004025

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Nielsen O, Roberts S, Gray D, McPherson A, Hitchman A (2005) Hydrodynamic modeling of coastal inundation. In: MODSIM 2005 International congress on modelling and simulation, pp 518–523

    Google Scholar 

  • Sieh K (2006) Sumatran megathrust earthquakes: from science to saving lives. Phil Trans R Soc A 364(1845):1947–1963

    Google Scholar 

  • Ramirez FJ, Perez PC (2004) The local tsunami alert system [“SLAT”]: a computational tool for the integral management of a tsunami emergency. Nat Hazards 31:129–142

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Rastogi BK, Jaiswal RK (2006) A catalogue of tsunamis in the indian ocean. Sci Tsunami Hazards 25(3):128–143

    Google Scholar 

  • Schlurmann T, Siebert M (2011) The capacity building programmes of GITEWS—visions, goals, lessons learned, and re-iterated needs and demands. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 11(2):293–300

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Schlurmann T, Kongko W, Goseberg N, Natawidjaja DH, Sieh K (2010) Near-field tsunami hazard Map Padang. Utilizing high resolution geospatial data and reasonable source scenaries. In: Smith J (ed) Proceedings of international conference of coastal engineering, West Sumatra

    Google Scholar 

  • Setiadi N (2011a) Establishment of an effective people-centered tsunami early warning by understanding people’s behavior and needs: Case study of Padang, West Sumatra. In: Anwar HZ, Harjono H (eds) Perspektif terhadap kebencanaan dan lingkungan di Indonesia: Studi kasus dan pengurangan dampak risikonya. Sub-Kegiatan Kompetitif Kebencanaan dan Lingkungan, Lembaga Ilmu Pengetahuan Indonesia, Bandung, pp 35–52

    Google Scholar 

  • Setiadi N (2011b) Daily mobility—excursus—padang, Indonesia. In: Chang Seng S, Birkmann J (ed) Migration and global environmental change: SR4b: early warning in the context of environmental shocks: demographic change, dynamic exposure to hazards, and the role of EWS in migration flows and human displacement. UK Government’s Foresight Project, Migration and Global Environmental Change, UK

    Google Scholar 

  • Setiadi N, Birkmann J (2010) Working package 1000: socio-economic vulnerability assessment: final report for the “Last-Mile—Evacuation project”, DFG/BMBF special program geotechnologies. United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human, Security (UNU-EHS) (in German)

    Google Scholar 

  • Setiadi N, Taubenböck H, Raupp S, & Birkmann J (2010) Integrating socio-economic data in spatial analysis: an exposure analysis method for planning urban risk mitigation. In: Manfred S, Vasily VP, Dirk E, Pietro E (eds) REAL CORP 2010, Vienna, 18–20 May 2010

    Google Scholar 

  • Taubenböck H, Goseberg N, Lämmel G, Setiadi N, Schlurmann T, Nagel K, Siegert F, Birkmann J, Traub K-P, Dech S, Keuck V, Lehmann F, Strunz G, Klüpfel H (2013) Risk reduction at the “Last-Mile”: an attempt to  turn science into action by the example of Padang, Indonesia. Nat Hazards 65(1):915–945.

    Google Scholar 

  • Taubenböck H, Goseberg N, Setiadi N, Lämmel G, Moder F, Oczipka M, Klüpfel H, Wahl R, Schlurmann T, Strunz G, Birkmann G, Nagel K, Siegert F, Lehmann F, Dech F, Gress A, Klein R (2009a) Last-mile preparation to a potential disaster—interdisciplinary approach towards tsunami early warning and an evacuation information system for the coastal city of Padang, Indonesia. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci (NHESS) 9(4):1509–1528

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Taubenböck H, Goseberg N, Lämmel G, Setiadi N, Schlurmann T, Nagel K et al (2012) Risk reduction at the “Last-Mile": from science to action by the example of Padang, Indonesia. Nat Hazards (accepted)

    Google Scholar 

  • Taubenböck H, Wurm M, Setiadi N, Gebert N, Roth A, Strunz G, Birkmann J, Dech S (2009b) Integrating remote sensing and social science—the correlation of urban morphology with socioeconomic parameters. In: Urban remote sensing joint event. Shanghai, China, p 7

    Google Scholar 

  • United Nations/ISDR (International Strategy for Disaster Reduction) (2004) Living with risk: a global review of disaster reduction initiatives, united nations international strategy for disaster reduction. UN Publications, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  • Weidmann U (1993) Transporttechnik der Fussgänger, Schriftenreihe des IVT, vol 90, 2nd edn. Institute for Transport Planning and Systems, ETH Zürich, (in German)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors would to thank the DFG/BMBF special Programme “Geotechnologies”—Early Warning Systems in Earth Management. Sponsorship Code: 03G0643A-E. We would also like to thank our partners in Padang Indonesia from Andalas University and the city municipality of Padang.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Franzius-Institute for Hydraulics, Waterways and Coastal Engineering, Leibniz University Hannover, Nienburger Str. 4, 30167 , Hannover, Germany

    N. Goseberg & T. Schlurmann

  2. Division Civil Security and Traffic, Jülich Supercomputing Centre Institute for Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH Institute for Advanced Simulation (IAS) Jülich Supercomputing Centre (JSC), Wilhelm-Johnen-Stra?e, 52425 , Jülich, Germany

    G. Lämmel

  3. German Aerospace Center, German Remote Sensing Data Center, Land Surface, Münchner Str. 10, 82234 , Wessling, Germany

    H. Taubenböck

  4. Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), United Nations University, Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10, 53113 , Bonn, Germany

    N. Setiadi & J. Birkmann

Authors
  1. N. Goseberg
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. G. Lämmel
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. H. Taubenböck
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. N. Setiadi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. J. Birkmann
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. T. Schlurmann
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to N. Goseberg .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Geophysical Institute, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany

    Friedemann Wenzel

  2. Section 2.1 Earthquake Risk and Early Wa, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ), Potsdam, Germany

    Jochen Zschau

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

Copyright information

© 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Goseberg, N., Lämmel, G., Taubenböck, H., Setiadi, N., Birkmann, J., Schlurmann, T. (2014). The Last-Mile Evacuation Project: A Multi-disciplinary Approach to Evacuation Planning and Risk Reduction in Tsunami-Threatened Coastal Areas. In: Wenzel, F., Zschau, J. (eds) Early Warning for Geological Disasters. Advanced Technologies in Earth Sciences. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-12233-0_11

Download citation