Abstract
We attempt a critical assessment of the assumptions, in terms of voting behavior, underlying the Goodman (1953) and the Brown and Payne (1986) models of voting transitions. We argue that the first model is only a slightly simpler version of the second which, however, is fitted in a rather inefficient way. We also provide a critical assessment of the approach inspired by King et al. (1999) which has become popular among Sociologists and Political scientists. An application to the 2009 European and local election in the borough of Perugia is discussed.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Bernardo, J. M. (2001). Interpretation of electoral results: A Bayesian analysis. Internal report, Departamento de Estadistica i I.O., Universitat de Valencia.
Bracalente, B., Ferracuti, L., & Forcina, A. (2006). L’analisi dei flussi elettorali in Umbria: le elezioni dal 2004 al 2006. AUR&R, 7, 145–178.
Brown, P. J., & Payne, C. D. (1986). Aggregate data, ecological regression and voting transitions. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 81, 453–460.
De Sio, L. (2009). Oltre il modello di Goodman: l’analisi dei flussi elettorali in base a dati aggregati, Polena, 9–33.
Forcina, A., & Marchetti, G. M. (1989). Modelling transition probabilities in the analysis of aggregate data. In A. Decarli, B. J. Francis, R. Gilchrist, & G. U. H. Seber, (Eds.), Statistical modelling. Springer Verlag.
Goodman, L. A. (1953). Ecological regression and the behaviour of individuals. American Sociological Review, 18, 351–367.
Grofman, B., & Merril, S. (2004). Ecological regression and ecological inference. In G. King, O. Rosen, & M. Tanner (Eds.), Ecological inference. Cambridge University Press.
King, G., Rosen, O., & Tanner, M. A. (1999). Beta-binomial hierarchical models for ecological inference. Sociological Methods & Research, 28, 61–90.
King, G., Rosen, O., & Tanner, M. A. (Eds.). (2004). Ecological inference. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Plackett, R. L. (1977). The marginal totals of a 2 ×2 table. Biometrika, 64, 37–42.
Robinson, W. S. (1950). Ecological correlations and the behavior of individuals. American Sociological Review, 15, 351–357.
Wakefield, J. (2004). Ecological inference for 2 ×2 tables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 167, 1–42.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Forcina, A., Marchetti, G.M. (2011). The Brown and Payne Model of Voter Transition Revisited. In: Ingrassia, S., Rocci, R., Vichi, M. (eds) New Perspectives in Statistical Modeling and Data Analysis. Studies in Classification, Data Analysis, and Knowledge Organization. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-11363-5_54
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-11363-5_54
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-11362-8
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-11363-5
eBook Packages: Mathematics and StatisticsMathematics and Statistics (R0)